A new national study from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics finds a surprising number of Americans support policies that could challenge the U.S. Constitution, even as majorities express a preference for democracy over other forms of government. This study of 2,008 registered U.S. voters conducted from August 25 to September 11, 2023, is the initial phase of a series by the Policy Center’s Project Home Fire to measure sentiment as the 2024 presidential race approaches. For more information about the study, including figures and charts describing the findings, see this accompanying presentation.
Election landscape 2024: Biden vs. Trump
In a race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 52% said they planned to vote for Biden and 48% for Trump, mirroring results in 2020. Respondents reported equally negative views of both candidates, with 40% approving and 50% disapproving of Biden’s job performance and 39% approving and 53% disapproving of Trump. Voters were split 40%-35% in favor of supporting at least likely Democratic candidates over Republican candidates in the 2024 congressional elections, with 25% choosing a middle ground, prioritizing qualifications over party ties.
Those who intended to support one candidate expressed a strong suspicion of supporters of the other side, which was expressed in roughly equal proportions among both Trump and Biden voters:
— The vast majority of both Biden (70%) and Trump (68%) voters believed that electing officials from the opposite party would result in permanent harm to the United States.
— About half (52% of Biden voters, 47% of Trump voters) saw those who supported the other party as threats to the American way of life.
— About 40% of both groups (41% Biden voters, 38% Trump voters) at least somewhat believed that the other side had become so extreme that it is acceptable to use force to prevent them from achieving their goals.
Playing with fire
When rated on a scale of 0 (strongly disagree) to 100 (strongly agree), 69% of respondents agreed at least somewhat (defined as a response of 61 or higher on a 100-point scale) with the statement, “Democracy is preferable in any non-democratic form of government”. However, nearly half of the total sample frequently expressed views that tended toward authoritarianism.
A significant share of respondents also expressed doubts about both the future of democracy and the United States as it currently stands. About two in five (41%) of those polled who lean toward Donald Trump in 2024 agreed at least somewhat with the idea of red states seceding from the Union to form their own separate country, while 30% of Biden supporters expressed similar feeling, but for blue states. Worryingly, nearly a third (31%) of Trump supporters and about a quarter (24%) of Biden supporters agree at least somewhat that democracy is no longer a viable system and that the country should explore alternative forms of government to ensure stability and progress.
Party views on governance and rights
Respondents were also presented with a series of statements suggesting the use of state power to achieve certain outcomes, measuring respondents’ willingness to use authoritarian methods for partisan purposes.
Those who plan to vote for Biden in 2024 were more likely than Trump voters to express support for the following (percentages shown are those who expressed at least some agreement with the statement):
Freedom of speech and rights: 31% of Biden supporters, compared to 25% of Trump supporters, at least somewhat agreed with limiting some rights, including free speech, to protect the feelings and safety of marginalized groups.
Regulation of discriminatory views: A significant 47% of Biden voters, compared to 35% of Trump voters, believed the government should regulate or limit the expression of views deemed discriminatory or offensive.
Firearms Control: There is a stark divide on gun control, with 74% of Biden supporters favoring restrictions on the amount and types of firearms, regardless of constitutional interpretations. By contrast, only 35% of Trump supporters felt the same way.
Redistribution of wealth: Addressing income inequality by redistributing all wealth above a certain threshold to address income inequality garnered support from 56% of Biden voters, compared to 39% of Trump voters.
Corporate diversity: A significant 69% of Biden voters believed in enforcing policies requiring companies to ensure diversity at all levels of leadership. That sentiment was shared by 43% of Trump voters.
When examining the sentiments of those leaning toward Trump in the upcoming 2024 election, the following preferences emerged:
National symbols and leaders: 50% of Trump voters, compared to 32% of Biden voters, agreed at least somewhat that laws requiring citizens to show respect for national symbols and leaders should be enacted.
Suspension of elections: In times of crisis, 30% of Trump supporters thought the election should be suspended, with a slightly smaller share (25%) of Biden supporters echoing that sentiment.
Patriotism and loyalty: 37% of Trump voters, compared to 24% of Biden voters, believed in enacting laws to restrict the expression of views deemed unpatriotic or disloyal.
Presidential powers: When it comes to national security decisions, 37% of Trump voters favored giving the president the power to override Congress, while 31% of Biden voters shared that view.
Protest regulations: 45% of Trump supporters, compared to 30% of Biden supporters, thought laws should be enacted to limit demonstrations and protests that the government deems likely to disrupt public order.
Almost identical numbers of Biden (37%) and Trump (36%) voters agreed at least somewhat with the need for some religious groups to be subject to government control and restrictions to ensure national security.
“We are on the precipice of a developing emergency,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Policy Center. “The antipathy of the other side combined with a pervasive disregard for the fundamental freedoms enshrined in the US Constitution poses a serious threat. If these sentiments remain unchecked and grow, our nation may face catastrophic division.”
Different views on previous elections and key issues
2020 election outlook: Looking back at the 2020 election, 56% of those who plan to vote for Trump in 2024 at least somewhat agreed that Trump won the 2020 election, but that it was stolen from him through voter fraud and voter manipulation (only 9% of his voters Biden felt similarly). Meanwhile, 88% of 2024 Biden voters agreed at least somewhat that the 2020 election was safe and free of fraud and that Biden won fairly, while just 25% of Trump voters felt the same way.
Immigration: Both Biden (78%) and Trump (58%) majorities of 2024 voters agreed at least somewhat that immigration reform was necessary to humanely address the needs of undocumented immigrants and enrich the diversity of our society . However, Trump voters expressed far greater support (70%, compared to just 32% of Biden voters) for legislation that would limit illegal immigrants’ access to employment and basic services, including health care, welfare and education .
Education: Additionally, majorities of Biden (85%) and Trump (55%) voters at least somewhat agreed that “the school curriculum should include teaching about systemic injustices and the negative aspects of our nation’s history.” However, slightly more than half of Trump voters (51%) versus just 28% of Biden voters at least somewhat agreed that “public schools should be required to teach civics that emphasizes patriotism and does not emphasize any negative aspects of our nation’s history.”
“Deep divisions in the American electorate are strikingly evident along a number of dimensions, from policy positions to priorities and values,” said Larry Sack, co-founder of Project Home Fire. “What is most troubling in this study is the prevailing acceptance of authoritarian means to achieve preferred political outcomes. This trend is no longer limited to a specific individual or a significant minority. now it extends to both Biden and Trump voters, showing a willingness to bend democratic rules in pursuit of their respective goals.”
Next steps
In the coming months, the Policy Center will publish additional insights from this study, delving into the mindset of American voters and highlighting new findings specific to bridging America’s political divide and providing unique insight into the evolving electoral landscape as we approach the critical 2024 election.
Project Home Fire is a unit of the Policy Center focused on the study of the American electorate. For more information about this ongoing polling and data analysis project and how it was conducted, see previous stories at Glass sphere exploring deep and persistent differences between Biden and Trump voters; what drives support for secession; the large role immigration plays in fueling our national divide. Who is more open to compromise in American politics? the polarization of attitudes on voting rules; views of Biden/Trump voters on the January 6, 2021 uprising; and public attitudes toward abortion.