“When such statements are issued, it is because early warning systems that Chinese embassies have invested in have identified potential flashpoints or threats,” he said.
“China does a much better job these days than it did say 10 years ago in terms of monitoring security incidents.”
African coups make life difficult for China’s Belt and Road projects
African coups make life difficult for China’s Belt and Road projects
In the past, Nantulya said, there was a sense that China saw its political connections with ruling elites as enough to provide a security blanket. But this is no longer the case.
He explained that this is because local partners may not have the capacity or political will to help, or their attention may be diverted elsewhere.
“There is a sense in the Chinese security establishment that China should increasingly start addressing these security concerns on its own using its own resources and using its own response mechanism,” Nantulya said.
Andrew Franklin, a Kenya-based security analyst and former US Marine, said there has been a significant increase in the number of Chinese living and working in Nairobi.
And since the end of the Covid restrictions, these Chinese citizens have started moving out of Nairobi. Franklin said they are often found in entertainment venues popular with expats and wealthy Kenyans.
“The embassy’s notification shows that we are aware of heightened security threats from al-Shabaab, as well as an increase in ordinary crime caused by the declining economy and the apparent inability of the police to respond to increased insecurity,” Franklin said.
“The Chinese embassy is acting responsibly and with well-considered concern to warn its citizens to remain alert and exercise reasonable caution, especially when mixing with Americans and other Westerners.”
Al-Shabab has carried out attacks in Kenya since it sent troops to Somalia in 2011 to fight al-Qaeda-linked jihadists.
Hansen said al-Shabaab is also committed to fighting against the Israeli effort in Gaza.
“This can motivate them to plan attacks,” he said.
As a key US ally in East Africa, Kenya has borne the brunt of security threats and suffered deadly terrorist attacks. Among them was one in 2015 when gunmen stormed Garissa University College, killing 148 people.
There have also been terrorist incidents at malls and hotels frequented by foreigners, such as the Westgate shopping mall attack in September 2013, when masked gunmen killed 67 people, and an attack on the luxury Dusit hotel complex in 2019, where 21 people were killed.
In addition to the Chinese embassy in Kenya, the embassy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo frequently warns its citizens – notably not to visit eastern Congo where “the security situation is complex and serious and the security environment continues to deteriorate.”
Nantulya said China is becoming much more vocal about security threats in various countries and regions – not only in Africa but also in Asia and Latin America – and “much more frequently than in the past”.