Africa’s geothermal capacity is set to more than double over the next seven years, allowing the continent’s geothermal industry to overtake Europe’s, according to research published by consultancy Rystad Energy. The company expects geothermal power capacity to reach 13 GW in Africa by 2050, up from just 1 GW today.
Generating electricity from geothermal resources involves harnessing superheated pools of water and steam created by magma flowing deep below the Earth’s surface. Where geological conditions permit – usually in volcanic regions or along tectonic plate boundaries – these geothermal resources can be brought to the surface and converted into electricity. The heat produced by geothermal resources can also be used for various purposes.
The Rift Valley region of East Africa has by far the most favorable conditions for geothermal energy production on the continent. Kenya has led the way in harnessing this potential – rapid growth over the past decade has helped the country become the world’s seventh largest geothermal producer.
Rystad figures show the country now produces 6.5 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity from geothermal sources (almost half of its total supply), up from just 1.6 TWh in 2010. The world’s largest geothermal facility, Olkaria VI, is set to begin production in Kenya’s Hell’s Gate National Park as early as next year.
said Daniel Holmedal, senior supply chain analyst at Rystad Energy African Business that the rise of Kenya’s geothermal industry was due in part to drilling campaigns undertaken by state entities as early as the 1960s. These had the effect of “locking out” investment from geothermal developers, who eventually started projects once resources had been proven.
Reflecting the rapid momentum, Kenyan energy company KenGen – which operates multiple geothermal power plants in the country – announced a 48% increase in pre-tax profits the year to 30 June. The company, which is 70 percent owned by the Kenyan government, said additional geothermal units allowed it to continue the power outage even as hydropower facilities were affected by drought conditions.
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The ability of geothermal sources to provide a ‘base load’ of low-carbon power and heat means Kenya is well placed to attract a range of green industries. For example, several developers of “direct air capture” technology, which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, are looking at Kenya as a possible base, in large part because of the abundant supply of energy and heat from geothermal sources.
Rystad cites Ethiopia, Djibouti, Tanzania and Zambia as the other key countries for geothermal energy in Africa. These countries, however, have been much slower to develop their geothermal resources than Kenya.
Ethiopia, despite having comparable geothermal potential to Kenya, has so far lagged behind its East African neighbour. “Ethiopia’s power supply has been mainly hydroelectric so far, so it hasn’t been as important to tap into its geothermal resources compared to a country like Kenya,” says Holmedal.
As reported by African Business In April, companies trying to develop geothermal projects in Ethiopia faced a barrage of problems, including Covid-19, political instability and the effects of the Tigray War. Geothermal developers also complain of a lack of support, both from the government and development finance institutions.
However, Holmedal believes that Ethiopia can begin to accelerate the development of its geothermal resources. “We expect in Ethiopia to see a more diversified energy mix in the coming decades and geothermal will start to play a more important role,” he says.
Kenyan companies, including KenGen and the Geothermal Development Company, are increasingly active in helping neighboring countries tap into their geothermal resources.
Rystad forecasts that Ethiopia will generate 7 TWh of electricity from geothermal sources by 2030, up from just 0.4 TWh today. This will depend on the success of several projects still under development, including Tulu Moye, Aluto-Langano and Corbetti. By 2050, Rystad believes Ethiopia could generate 24 TWh from geothermal sources, accounting for about a fifth of its supply.