Joutside at the French army base in Abeche, a dusty town in eastern Chad, Mohamed Adam waits for his two toddlers. They had spots all over their faces, so he took them to the French base, he says. “If you’re sick sometimes they help.” Mr. Adam, a taxi driver, is grateful. But even he questions France’s role in Chad. “We’re not fully independent,” he says. “It’s 50% for us, 50% for France.” But he demurs when asked if all French troops should leave. Many others in Abeche are more hostile. Last year protesters tried to storm the base and tore down the French flag, replacing it with Chad’s.
Anti-French sentiment has risen sharply in the Sahel, the arid strip south of the Sahara, after a long French military intervention failed to stem jihadist violence in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Conflict deaths rose from around 800 in 2016 to nearly 6,000 in 2021, the last full year of French operations in Mali. A series of coups has swept the region since 2020, affecting Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Those who uploaded them tried to justify their actions as necessary for safety. each a scapegoat in France to boost his street popularity. French soldiers, who had been invited, were quickly pushed back, although this did not improve security. The headquarters for France’s operations in these countries is based on a permanent base in Chad’s capital, N’Djamena, long its closest ally in the region. Large convoys of the French army retreating from the Niger are now arriving in the city.
However, many worry that France could be pushed out of Chad as well. Recent polls show support for France falling and popularity for Russia rising, Western official says. Others fear that political tension and threats on Chad’s border could explode into civil war. “It’s a powder keg that’s going to blow,” says Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. This would be a geopolitical nightmare, because Chad is a flashpoint among many fires in the wider region: civil war and genocide in Sudan. jihadist violence in the Sahel. and conflicts in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Libya, where Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group operate in both countries (see map).
Chad has been ruled by Mahamat Idriss DĂ©by since April 2021, when his father, Idriss DĂ©by, was killed on the battlefield by rebels. The old man had seized power in an armed uprising in 1990. That his son’s takeover was unconstitutional didn’t bother France. Its president, Emmanuel Macron, immediately flew to the funeral and publicly stressed that France would intervene to stop future rebel attacks. His country has long supported dictators in Chad in exchange for Chadian soldiers fighting alongside France in the region and for French bases in the country. This support has been extended to French jets bombing rebel columns. In 2019, they crushed one such rebel advance. It is understood that in 2021 France provided intelligence on rebel movements and carried out threatening overflights, but was never directly asked by Chad’s rulers to strike.
The younger Mr DĂ©by initially promised an 18-month transition to elections and that he would not stand at the polls. However, in October 2022 he extended the transition for another two years and declared that he was finally eligible to run. Outraged opposition groups took to the streets. Chadian security forces killed at least 128 people in one day and imprisoned hundreds more.
A constitutional referendum is now scheduled for December and elections late next year. However, it is highly unlikely that Mr. DĂ©by will lose the election. Official opposition leader Succès Masra, who fled Chad after the bloodshed last year and was pursued by the regime with an international arrest warrant, returned in early November after signing a deal with Mr DĂ©by’s government.
Many fear that Mr. Masra, strapped for cash and with little support in Washington or Paris, has been captured by the regime, possibly with the promise of a government position. “When Nelson Mandela signed an agreement with the apartheid regime, does that mean Mandela was co-opted?” says Mr Masra when the claim is made to him, adding that it is a “pro-democracy deal”. Even so, few expect free elections.
A palace coup may be a bigger threat to Mr DĂ©by than the ballot box. The president was not the unanimous choice to take over when his father died. The dominant clique in Chad comes from the Zaghawa tribe in the east, who make up only a small percentage of Chad’s population. However, Mr DĂ©by’s mother is not Zaghawa, raising concerns. His half-siblings almost certainly have presidential aspirations of their own. He has also ruffled feathers by retiring a number of generals. And although officially neutral in Sudan’s civil war, Mr. DĂ©by tacitly supported the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and allegedly allowed the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to fly weapons into the group via an airport in Amdjarass, the home of the DĂ©by family. At the same time the UAEwhich maintains that the flights are carrying humanitarian aid and not weapons, has apparently provided a wealth of financial support to Mr DĂ©by’s government.
However, many of Chad’s ruling elite have close family and tribal connections to Zaghawa rebel groups in Sudan’s Darfur region. In mid-November the strongest of them declared war on RSF. This will escalate tensions in Zaghawa government circles in N’Djamena. “This [backing the RSF] it threatens to divide the family and divide the army,” says one Western diplomat.
“I don’t think DĂ©by’s leadership will last a year,” says Mr Hudson. Not everyone is so sure. It faces many threats but is proving to be a surprisingly skillful political actor, says Enrica Picco of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.
A palace coup would not necessarily mean civil war or force the French to leave, although it would increase the risk of that happening. A military coup by non-Zaghawa officers would more likely result in widespread bloodshed and drive the French out. Some Arabs even within the ruling coalition are unhappy with Mr. DĂ©by’s leadership, Ms. Picco notes.
It is also possible that rebels will invade from abroad to topple Mr DĂ©by. It was Libyan rebels who killed his father in 2021, while earlier this year leaked US intelligence cables suggested Wagner mercenaries were helping southern Chad rebels in CAR in yet another plot to overthrow Mr. DĂ©by.
Such threats may explain why Mr. DĂ©by may be looking for new ways to consolidate power. In November Hungary’s parliament approved sending up to 200 troops to Chad, supposedly to tackle terrorism and illegal immigration. Some analysts suspect that this development is actually to help Mr DĂ©by secure gold deposits in the restive north or perhaps even protect him from a coup.
A deal with Khalifa Haftar, a warlord who controls eastern Libya, has recently led to attacks by Mr Haftar’s men on Chadian rebel bases in Libya. Mr DĂ©by also has warm ties to Mr Macron, whom he recently visited in Paris. That relationship, along with Chad’s status as France’s last ally in a vast and volatile region, suggests France would again use air power against rebel columns attacking from Libya. In southern Chad, despite Wagner’s alleged machinations, Mr. DĂ©by appears to have cultivated surprisingly good relations with Faustin-Archange TouadĂ©ra, the CARof the president, who agreed to let Chadian forces pursue the rebels in his country.
Another concern for Mr DĂ©by is the prospect of recovery from Sudan’s civil war, which is already giving him a headache. However, the end of the war in Sudan could bring even more problems. Many RSF The militants have ties to Chad and axes to grind, despite Mr DĂ©by’s recent tacit support. If the RSF defeat Sudan’s official army, some of his men could try to settle scores in Chad. They would almost certainly hunt down refugees or fighters who have fled across the border. However, you should RSF lost, large numbers of armed fighters could flood into Chad. They may even head straight to N’Djamena to seize power.
Western governments have turned a blind eye to Mr. DĂ©by’s bloody authoritarianism, as they did to his father, because they fear the collapse of the regime could lead to civil war or a pro-Russian regime. After the disasters in Niger and Mali, France believes pressuring Mr DĂ©by to honor his promise not to run and hold free elections is “a luxury we cannot afford”, says a Western diplomat . That attitude frustrates Mr Masra, who says France and America have only ever considered Chad useful for security. What about the expectations of our people, demands? â–