Crisis results (IPC Phase 3) emerge as lean season begins amid El Niño
Key messages
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The effects of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) are present across the Southern African region, particularly in areas that recorded a below-average harvest in 2023 due to weather shocks or are affected by conflict. Across the region many poor households have depleted their food stocks and face limited access to income amid high food prices. However, the results (IPC Phase 2) exist in areas where poor households still have food stocks, but high prices limit household purchasing power, such as northern Mozambique, high-production areas of Zimbabwe and Greater Southeast Madagascar. In addition, humanitarian aid in safe areas of Cabo Delgado supports Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), but the effects of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) are present in conflict-affected areas, particularly North Kivu and Ituri in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
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Land preparation and planting for the main farming season is underway throughout the region. In October, rainfall was largely average to above average in the eastern sector of the country and below average across the western sector. However, no effective onset of the rainy season was recorded over much of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi in southern Angola and southern Madagascar until late October. A late start to effective rainfall is expected in November and below average rainfall combined with above average temperatures due to the ongoing strong El Niño. Below-average rainfall will likely affect planting activities and farm labor opportunities that could lead to a below-average harvest in 2024. Farm labor activities typically available during this time of the season are likely to are lower than normal, limiting the incomes of poor households that rely on such activities, negatively affecting their food security situation.
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Staple food prices rise seasonally as stocks from the same production decline and demand increases as households increasingly rely on market food purchases. But prices are likely to be higher than the five-year average in many watched markets across the region as supply of corn and other staples dwindles and well-to-do farmers hold on to stocks to try to cushion themselves from effects of El Niño. In particular, prices in Malawi are significantly higher than last year and the five-year average. In October, maize grain prices in Lilongwe, Malawi were 120 percent higher than last year and 250 percent higher than the five-year average and are expected to rise during the lean season. Relatedly, rising inflation and low foreign exchange reserves in Angola are limiting the supply of imported food products and increasing food prices, limiting poor households’ access to food. However, in Mozambique maize grain prices are stable due to increased supply from the second harvest. Overall, high food prices in the region are likely to keep household purchasing power low.
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The security situation in the DRC remains volatile following the unexpected resumption of fighting between government forces and M23 rebels in North Kivu since October 2023. The escalation of conflict in eastern DRC has led to a worsening security and humanitarian situation. According to the Red Cross, nearly 450,000 have recently been displaced amid insufficient humanitarian aid to meet needs. With the imminent withdrawal of EAC troops and the arrival of SADEC troops, the situation could further deteriorate, with an increase in the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4).