According to the IOC Carbon 2023 Report, coal mining projects in Africa dedicated to exports remain stagnant even as actual use on the continent may expand.
Carbon consumption in Africa is mainly driven by South Africa, which accounted for 84% of the continent’s consumption in 2022.
South Africa’s coal consumption had fallen by 6 million tonnes (Mt) to 160 Mt in 2022 thanks to high energy prices and a slow economic recovery from COVID-19.
The picture doesn’t look much better in 2023 due to a record contraction affecting household demand and industrial activity. As the IEA report put it, the poor performance of Eskom’s coal-fired power plants is the main culprit, and blackouts have shaved about two percentage points from the country’s GDP.
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“Taking into account the low availability of the coal-fired power plant fleet, we estimate that coal consumption in 2023 will have further declined to 154 Mt,” the IEA said.
Once the last of the six units is operational, Kusile will be the fourth largest coal plant in the world
The low availability of South Africa’s coal fleet may change the mining situation
The Agency considers that the deliberate decommissioning of coal-fired plants by the Just Energy Transition Plans is somewhat derailed by the power shortage caused by the low availability of the coal fleet.
“However, given the critical supply situation, South Africa’s climate policy body recently proposed delaying the phase-out of coal plants without specifying a timetable. In addition, Eskom was to restart 2.4 GW of coal capacity by the end of 2023,” the IEA said.
“In this context, we expect coal consumption to recover to 164 Mt by 2026,” the IEA said of South Africa and by extension Africa’s use of black rock.
“In Zimbabwe, a 0.3 GW coal-fired unit began operation in March and another unit of a similar size is expected to come online in late 2023. Coal capacity in Botswana is also set to increase, as a new coal 0, The 6 GW plant is slated for construction by India’s Jindal Steel and Power Ltd, with completion in 2026,” the Carbon 2023 report.
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Forecasts and Forecast: South African Mining and Critical Minerals
Coal mining in South Africa
Significant investment and new projects in South Africa’s coal mining sector have been lacking for years. The country has several hundred abandoned mines, and the prevalence of contaminated soils and waterways is associated with new mines. In this context, only two coal mining projects have entered a more advanced stage recently and one has been commissioned.
The Arnot thermal coal mine, which historically produced 5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), has reopened and is expected to deliver its first coal soon. Canyon Coal’s 1.2 Mtpa Sucho thermal coal mine is currently under construction.
The New Largo mine, owned by Seriti, appears to be at a more advanced stage as mining operations have begun. it is currently on the rise. The mine’s full capacity is reported at 12 Mtpa, partly serving demand from coal-fired power plants and partly serving exports.
Of interest
Around the world, the construction of coal-fired power plants is slowing
However, the exact amounts earmarked for export depend on the progress of the Kusile power station as it commissions its last two units to come online. Once the last of the six units is operational, Kusile will be the fourth largest coal plant in the world.
Capacity at known less advanced projects more than halved compared to the IEA’s previous analysis, to around 21 Mtpa, suggesting a downward trend in South Africa’s new projects.
![Eskom Lethabo Power Station](https://www.esi-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/exterior-view-lethabo-power-station-1.jpg)
![Eskom Lethabo Power Station](https://www.esi-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/exterior-view-lethabo-power-station-1.jpg)
![Eskom Lethabo Power Station](https://www.esi-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/exterior-view-lethabo-power-station-1.jpg)
![Eskom Lethabo Power Station](https://www.esi-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/exterior-view-lethabo-power-station-1.jpg)
Botswana goes for export market
In 2022, Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi officially opened a new coal mine at the Morupule State Coal Mine (MCM). The mine, with an annual production capacity of 1.4 Mtpa, is poised to increase coal exports from Botswana, mainly to neighboring countries.
The new site boosts MCM’s production by 50% to 4.2 Mtpa. In addition, India-based Jindal was reported to have started construction of a new 4.5 tpa coal mine at the southeastern Mmamabula coalfields in 2022.
The mine is planned to serve the nearby coal plant currently under consideration and the South African market. As the power plant project appears to be progressing, the IEA expects construction of the mine to begin.
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Mozambique is considering processing beyond coal
Investment in coal mining has stalled in Mozambique, as no projects are at a more advanced stage. Three projects with a combined capacity of more than 40 tpa have not progressed in recent years and can be considered abandoned.
Despite new projects remaining stagnant, a strategically important terminal for Botswana’s exports, the Matola Coal Terminal at the Port of Maputo, is set to increase its capacity by 4.0. from 7.3 Mtpa to 12 Mtpa. However, in addition to coal, iron oxide and magnetite are also processed at the site.
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Global coal demand is rising, but IEA forecasts are coming down
Zimbabwe is on the rise
The only new coal mining project known in Zimbabwe is the Lubu Coking Coal Project owned by Contango Holdings. The mine is currently in an upgrade phase, producing around 0.24 Mtpa and aims to produce up to 5 Mtpa in the coming years. The mine will serve the new 0.6 GW Hwange coal-fired power plant, funded by Chinese investors.
Tanzania took advantage of pricing
Tanzania has increased its mining activity in light of sustained high prices in the second half of 2022. The country’s coal mining has historically served domestic demand and demand only from neighboring countries. Given the excellent market situation in 2022, Tanzanian coal has also found its way to Europe.
However, the elevated price level has not prompted new investment in mining projects, and it remains doubtful whether increased exports will continue while prices are on a downward trajectory in 2023.
“Furthermore, we expect no new coal projects to come online in Africa until 2026,” the IEA said.
Read it of the IOC Carbon Market Report 2023 report In connection. ESI