The deal has sparked outrage in Somalia
The defense minister of the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland has become the latest casualty of the row over a controversial deal wreaking havoc in the Horn of Africa.
Abdiqani Mohamoud Ateye resigned, saying cabinet ministers should have been consulted about a deal Somaliland struck with Ethiopia that could see it lease part of its coastline to its landlocked neighbour.
Somalia – which considers Somaliland part of its territory – reacted angrily to the January 1 deal, calling it an act of aggression.
Both the US and the African Union have supported Somalia’s territorial integrity and urged all parties to ease tensions.
What was agreed?
The exact wording of the agreement signed by the leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia has not been made public, which is a problem as there are different versions of what the two sides agreed to in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
A Memorandum of Understanding is a statement of intent rather than a legally binding agreement, but what seems clear is that Somaliland is prepared to grant Ethiopia access to the sea for commercial traffic through a port, although it is not clear which port that would be.
There is also a military aspect. Somaliland said it could lease part of the coast to the Ethiopian navy, which Addis Ababa confirmed.
In return, Somaliland will receive a stake in Ethiopia Airlines, the country’s successful national carrier.
But where things get stuck is whether Ethiopia has said it will recognize Somaliland as an independent state – something no other country has done in the 30 years since the former British colony said it was leaving Somalia.
On the day of the signing, Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi said the agreement included a section stating that Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as an independent country at some point in the future.
Ethiopia has not confirmed this. Instead, in seeking to clarify what the MoU contained, the government on January 3 said the deal included “provisions… to make an in-depth assessment to take a position on Somaliland’s efforts to win recognition”.
Why is this so controversial?
For Somalia, Somaliland is an integral part of its territory. Any suggestion that it could make a deal with another country or that parts of it could be leased without Mogadishu’s approval is highly problematic.
The day after the MoU was signed, Somalia described the agreement as an act of “aggression” that was “an obstacle to … peace and stability.” It also recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa.
On Sunday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stepped up the rhetoric, saying: “We will defend our country, we will defend it by any means necessary and we will seek the support of any ally willing to help us.”
He also called on the youth to “prepare for the defense of our country.”
Last week there were protests in Mogadishu against the deal, with tens of thousands turning out to voice their opposition.
What is the situation in Somaliland?
Somaliland, a former British protectorate, declared itself independent from Somalia in 1991 and has all the hallmarks of a country, including a functioning political system, regular elections, a police force and its own currency.
Over the decades, it has also escaped much of the chaos and violence that plagued Somalia.
But its independence has not been recognized by any country.
If, as Somaliland has said, Ethiopia agrees to recognize it at some point, it would have a profound impact on the Horn of Africa region.
What did Ethiopia say?
Prime Minister Abiy last year described access to the sea as an existential issue.
Ethiopia lost its ports when Eritrea seceded in the early 1990s. With more than 100 million people, it is the most densely populated landlocked country in the world.
Mr Abiy’s statement raised fears that Ethiopia could try to achieve its goal by force.
He described the agreement with Somaliland as historic and emphasized that its intentions are peaceful.
“The position announced by the government is strongly rooted in the desire not to engage in war with anyone,” Ethiopia’s communications office said.
But in an aside to the controversy, Mr Abiy told X on Sunday that “if we expect things to happen in ways that we are used to or know or can predict, [opportunities] it can pass us by.”
He added that sometimes some “outside” thinking was needed to achieve goals.
What did others say?
On January 3, African Union Commission chairman Musa Faki Mahamat called for calm and mutual respect “to de-escalate the simmering tension” between Ethiopia and Somalia.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller also said his country was concerned about reports that Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland’s independence.
“We continue with other partners in expressing our grave concern also about the subsequent escalation of tensions in the Horn of Africa,” he added at a press conference.
Turkey, which plays an important role in Somalia, declared its “commitment to the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Somalia.
And Egypt has also pledged to support Somalia. President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi told his Somali counterpart that Egypt stood by Somalia and supported “its security and stability”.