Source: AFP
The recent strikes against Yemen’s Houthis are unlikely to end the threat they pose to international shipping, with the Iran-backed rebels having already survived years of heavy aerial bombardment by Gulf states.
US and British forces targeted nearly 30 sites with more than 150 munitions overnight, striking the drone, missile and radar infrastructure used by the rebels to repeatedly attack commercial vessels in the Red Sea in recent weeks.
The United States still has additional military options available, and top officials have warned of further action if attacks continue, but an extended air campaign in Yemen also risks an escalation with Iran, which Washington wants to avoid.
US Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims said Friday that the Houthis had already fired an anti-ship ballistic missile in response to the strikes and indicated he expected wider repercussions.
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“The rhetoric of the Houthis has been quite strong and quite loud. I would expect them to attempt some sort of retaliation,” he told reporters.
Constant threat
John Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he believed the recent raids “will reduce but not end the Houthi threat to shipping.”
“The challenge is getting the Houthis to conclude that more strikes will hurt their interests. It’s not clear they’ve come to that conclusion yet,” he said.
Washington still has more options if the attacks continue, including continuing to strike the Houthis as well as targeting sites where Iranian trainers or experts are located, Alterman said.
Mark Schwartz, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and current senior fellow at RAND, also said he expects Houthi shipping attacks to continue.
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“I think they will continue to try to attack maritime vessels. Probably commercial, maybe not so much military ships that are out there,” Schwartz said, referring to the growing number of warships deployed in the Red Sea to help intercept and deter Houthi drone and missile attacks.
The strikes so far have hit military infrastructure, but this could shift to targeting the Houthi military leadership if their attacks on shipping continue, he said, noting that the rebels “are a cellular organization” and “hide among the population ” — traits that can make them hard to hit.
“You incur further costs”
The Houthis have been the target of thousands of strikes by the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, but Riyadh is now pushing for a ceasefire and a military exit from the country with the rebels undefeated and still in control of parts of Yemen.
The Houthis claim they are targeting ships linked to Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza, where Israel is fighting the militant group Hamas in a highly destructive conflict, but Washington says dozens of countries have links to the ships that were attacked.
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Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the US and British strikes “appear to be serious attacks on Houthi sites rather than symbolic gestures”.
“There’s a good chance the Houthis will strike again — but with lower frequency and intensity” and that “Iran will tell them to cool it,” he added.
The United States has been clear that the Houthis will face further repercussions if their attacks continue.
President Joe Biden said he would “not hesitate to direct further measures”, while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned the Houthis “will bear further costs if they do not end their unlawful attacks”.
Source: AFP