15 |
Jason Day |
Perfect in 13 starts, he has done his job in all conditions and that will matter this week (more on that below). A co-runner-up in 2018 has scored, count ’em, eight top 10s. The Aussie has also flashed enough of late to be enticing. |
14 |
Nicolai Højgaard |
Ah, to be 22 again. Despite a short week of long travel after a T7 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, and a virtually invisible sight at Torrey Pines, he challenged all the way for a solo second. It is his third podium in five starts worldwide. |
13 |
Nick Taylor |
While Nappy Factor can’t be ruled out as a superpower en route to victory in 2020, he is tied for three more top 20s in the tournament. A low ball flight is a bona fide weapon in a strong breeze. Super form over the last 12 months. |
12 |
Bo Hosler |
Arguably the most extreme of others on this page, but there’s no denying the 28-year-old has performed at a high level. A T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open was his sixth top 15 in 11 starts. Went 3rd-T11 in last two starts here. |
11 |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
Like most, his record is a mixed bag, but highlighted by a solid T6 two years ago and a T12 at the 2019 US Open. In that event, he’s gone 11-of-14 with a pair of devastating 76s and 79s. the other three trips. |
10 |
JT Poston |
It’s been a long six years since his most recent visit, so the focus is on his incredible form upon arrival. Eight top-11 finishes in his last 12 starts. Then again, his well-balanced attack also steps up when Mother Nature throws a kitchen sink. |
9 |
Scotty Sheffler |
The forever advantage of small greens is that average to poor players can hide in plain sight. Of course, his tee-to-green game is among the best of his generation, so he should love the fit in his tournament debut. |
8 |
Xander Schauffele |
First tournament appearance since his rookie debut in 2017, but added a T3 at the 2019 US Open at Pebble. He’s been busy with a T10 (Sentry), a T3 (American Express) and a T9 (Farmers) already on the board this year. |
7 |
Tommy Fleetwood |
English’s standing class trumps statistical analysis in part because it has thrived on all court types, greens and green sizes. As long as he is fit, he is a threat. He has a win and a T14 in his last two starts in Dubai. |
6 |
Justin Thomas |
Suffice it to say, he’s gotten out of his way and sent the demons swinging into early 2023. In fact, he’s booked five consecutive strong performances spanning six months now, the latest a T3 at The American Express. |
5 |
Viktor Hovland |
It’s already been five years since he posted a T12 at Pebble Beach as an amateur at the US Open. He is 2-for-2 in this tournament since then, with a T13 last year. Three-time winner in 2023, including the FedExCup. Correct ball flight for the test. |
4 |
Max Homa |
When he says he loves playing golf in his home state of California, believe him. He’s paid off on the coast and at Pebble Beach where he’s gone T10-T14-T7 in his last three appearances. Nine consecutive top 15s worldwide. |
3 |
Patrick Candley |
A T56 at Farmers was disappointing, but still consistent with his lack of success there. He enjoyed the opposite here with a T3 (2021) and a T4 (2022) baked in a 6 by 6 slate. Co-owner of course record at Pebble Beach (62). |
2 |
Jordan Spieth |
Pebble Beach & Co. it was a personal playground. He is 11-for-11 with a win (2017), a solo second (2022) and a T3 (2021) among six top 10s. He arrives this week rested since opening the season with a solo third at The Sentry. |
1 |
Rory McIlroy |
Ever since he simplified things eight months ago, he’s done nothing but argue. And now, after the holiday break, he opened 2024 with a T2 and a win, both in Dubai. First appearance at Pebble Beach after a T9 at the 2019 US Open. |