“The 1.5 percent growth was … a reflection of the strong resilience of China-Africa trade,” Jiang Wei, head of the commerce ministry’s West Asia and Africa affairs department, told reporters on Wednesday.
Last year, the value of China’s total world trade fell 5 percent from the previous year to US$5.93 trillion.
According to Chinese customs data, in 2023 China recorded a decline in trade with its top five trading partners in Africa – South Africa, Angola, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Egypt – which are mainly resource-rich nations.
Analysts said the drop in imports from Africa could partly be attributed to the fall in the price of basic minerals, metals and oil that China imports mainly from some African countries. For example, a tonne of cobalt averaged US$63,739 in 2022, but the price had fallen below US$30,000 by the end of 2023.
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Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa expert and associate professor at the University of Sydney’s Center for China Studies, noted that the 2023 trade figures relate to price volatility for resources such as oil and copper.
China imports raw materials from the continent, including oil, copper and aluminum, whose prices have fallen in the past year.
“A drop in these and Africa’s trade profits will decline, even if volumes stay the same – and sometimes even increase,” Johnston said. “To a large extent today, Africa’s trade balance depends on the price of oil.”
The price of Brent crude was to average US$83 a barrel in 2023, down from US$101 a barrel in 2022, a drop mainly due to a lack of oil supply after fears of the Russia-Ukraine war gripped markets, driving falling prices.
However, falling oil prices are good news for Africa’s own oil importers, which tend to be the economies with the best chance of industrialization. “It’s not necessarily bad news,” Johnston said.
Carlos Lopes, a professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Administration at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, said the modest changes also reflected continued lower demand from China despite an upward curve starting in 2022.
However, Lopez said economic growth, consumer demand and overall economic performance in both China and Africa were still recovering from the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
“It is also clear that the Chinese government has adjusted its trade policies, tariffs and regulations in light of tensions with the US and climate-related developments,” Lopez said.
“It is also important to bear in mind that changes in exchange rates have affected the competitiveness of goods from Africa, affecting trade volumes and values.”
China has come under fire for its huge trade surplus with most of the world, with some accusing it of fostering an unhealthy balance by selling finished goods to Africa, buying mostly raw materials.
Over the past two years, about a dozen African nations have benefited from Beijing’s decision to waive tariffs on exports from “least developed countries” to Africa.
Beijing has said it plans to import $300 billion worth of goods from Africa by 2024.
But Johnston said addressing a trade imbalance won’t happen overnight.
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While increased agricultural exports could improve the balance of trade with individual countries and increase the income of some rural communities, it is unlikely to significantly affect trade balances across Africa in the near future, if ever, unless there were large-scale exports. . such as soybean exports from the US and Brazil or dairy from New Zealand.
He said it will take long-term efforts for both Africa and China to find a trade balance, and China may also have to offer something new.
“Creating competitive and sustainable exports beyond energy and minerals is not easy. It takes time,” Johnston said.