Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing three times faster than the rest of the world with an average of 4.6 births per woman in 2021. In comparison, Canada’s fertility rate was 1.3 births per woman in 2022.
The region is projected to continue to be the fastest growing in the world, with a population growing from 1.2 billion in 2021 to 2.1 billion in 2050.
Steady and rapid population growth has profound implications for development, worsening social, economic and environmental challenges from food insecurity and gender inequality to environmental degradation.
At the same time, Sub-Saharan Africa also has a disproportionate vulnerability to climate change and environmental degradation.
It is important that population dynamics and reproductive health are at the forefront of ongoing environmental debates.
Population dynamics and environment
There are many fair and humane ways to slow the pace of rapid population growth while respecting human rights and the need for economic growth. Key to this goal is the promotion of reproductive rights, gender equality and education.
Promoting reproductive autonomy by ensuring that individuals have the means to choose the timing and frequency of childbearing has significant benefits for climate change resilience and environmental sustainability.
As individuals are given the means to choose the number, timing and spacing of their children, tend to have fewer children.
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It is estimated that if the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals goal for contraceptive use and education is achieved, the size of the world population will decrease from today’s 8 billion to 6.29 billion in 2100. If not, then the instrument of the United Nations The 10.3 billion forecast seems more likely.
However, despite their far-reaching implications for environmental sustainability, demographic trajectories are largely overlooked or taken for granted by the development and environmental communities. This creates a missed opportunity for transformative change.
Discussions highlighting the negative effects of global population growth are often marginalized and perceived as unjustified, disturbing, coercive and racist. At the same time, it is important to remember that high birth rates should not be blamed, but instead viewed through the lens of broader socioeconomic issues.
We live in a demographically divided world. Some regions of the planet experience continuous population growth, while others observe relative stability and even decline.
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In this context, concerns about population growth may appear to have limited global application, making it more difficult to express concern about human population growth than population decline elsewhere.
However, this does not mean that exponential human growth cannot create concerns in some areas.
Sub-Saharan prospects
Like researcher in the emerging field of planetary health, I study the relationship between reproductive rights, population dynamics, and environmental sustainability.
In cooperation with Nkechi S. Owoofrom the University of Ghana, we started to explore stakeholder perceptions around these issues. We were surprised to learn that the perspectives of sub-Saharan Africa had not been documented in isolation, despite their unique relevance.
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Our study involved a survey and follow-up interviews with 402 participants from 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The results would surprise many observers who may doubt that population growth is a concern in Africa.
Although there were geographic and gender limitations to our sample size—and more research will be required to further explore this issue—we nevertheless believe that our findings provide useful insights into widespread public concern about population growth. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived population growth as a phenomenon that represents challenges to environmental sustainability, economic and social goals, peace and security.
Many participants expressed the view that population dynamics should be integrated into policies and discussions aimed at improving or maintaining environmental quality. This was specifically stated by one respondent
“Population dynamics must always be at the forefront whenever climate and environment are discussed.”
A small number of participants argued that population growth was not a driver of environmental degradation and climate change, which was attributed to the excessive consumption habits and disproportionate responsibility of the Global North.
The vast majority of our respondents, however, took a different view. They considered that the disproportionate role of consumption did not preclude recognition of the role of population growth in creating environmental degradation.
One survey participant from South Africa, for example, stated that:
“The cumulative impact of 1 billion low footprints per capita still equals high impact. This is not to underestimate the high impact of people who may have lower fertility rates and higher per capita footprints – which is just as important to address.”
Participants overwhelmingly felt reproductive health and rights, alongside women’s education and empowerment, should be integrated into environmental sustainability debates and policies.
They agreed with the notion that contraceptive and family planning services can have a positive impact on environmental sustainability. They also agreed that mainstreaming family planning as an environmental policy would help accelerate much-needed progress on reproductive rights and sustainability.
It is time to discuss demography
This study presents surprising evidence that dispels common assumptions about the sensitivity of the population trend debate in developing countries.
Our research shows that the majority of those working in a field related to economic, social or environmental development in sub-Saharan Africa consider the issue of population growth important.
Our study also supports the importance of amplifying people’s voices among those most exposed to rapid population growth and most vulnerable to climate change and environmental degradation. These people, more often than not, live in places where they face gender equality and access to family planning significant challenges.
Most of our survey respondents are concerned about population growth due to its negative environmental and social consequences and wish to integrate demographic and reproductive rights and gender equality issues into environmental debates and policies.
Similar calls for stabilizing and phasing out the human population while supporting reproductive autonomy and gender equality are regularly issued by leading environmental scientists and must be prioritized to achieve the transformative change required for sustainability.