Source: AFP
Rising food costs, economic stagnation and deteriorating living standards risk pushing voters into the arms of the far-right in European elections later this year, which could shake up the political agenda in Brussels.
EU citizens are suffering from multiple crises.
As the European Union’s economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, forcing Europe to look for new sources of energy.
This race has led to higher gas and electricity prices, hurting households and businesses.
Amid the cost of living crisis, the European far-right has prospered, with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni winning in 2022 and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands last year.
“There is a correlation between the rise of populist forces and the economic and financial crisis,” said Thierry Chopin, a political scientist at the Jacques Delors Institute.
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“The radical right today is greatly exploiting the feeling of impoverishment” and “very intense pessimism” among voters, Chopin said.
But inflation is easing, giving European politicians hope that the EU economy will improve after more than a year of zero growth.
But improvements will only start to be seen after the summer, not in time for EU-wide elections on June 6-9.
Almost three in four Europeans believe their standard of living will fall this year, while almost one in two say it has already worsened, according to the European Parliament’s Eurobarometer survey published in December.
About 37 percent of participants said they had difficulty paying their bills.
Factory closings are increasing in the car industry, especially in Germany.
Between November and January, auto parts maker Bosch said it was cutting 2,700 jobs, while ZF closed a site that employed 700 people and Continental said it would cut thousands of administrative jobs.
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“German industry is heavily affected by high energy prices and is suffering from the electric transition in the car industry, for now we do not see a turnaround in the order books,” said Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING bank.
Weaker Germany
Germany has been in recession since last year and the pain in the EU’s biggest economy is affecting the whole of Europe.
Spending remains weak due to increased prices.
Record high interest rates by the European Central Bank to tame inflation are hurting investment and causing property markets to stumble. Meanwhile, international trade, weighed down by China’s slowdown, is unable to compensate for weak domestic demand.
“The eurozone economy stagnated in the fourth quarter and we believe it will remain flat in the first half of this year as the effects of previous monetary tightening continue to feed through and fiscal policy becomes more restrictive,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds. of Capital Economics.
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The 27 EU member states are also constrained by the bloc’s rules on public spending.
For example, France reinstated an electricity tax in February, pushing up prices by almost 10%.
“Austerity risks pushing an extremely large part of our citizens into the arms of the far right because they feel abandoned,” warned MEP Philippe Lamberts.
Far-right pressure on politics
Several surveys show a strong rise in far-right parties belonging to the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which includes France’s National Assembly led by Marine Le Pen, Germany’s AfD party, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang and Austria’s FPO.
The ID group could become the third largest in the European Parliament, overtaking the liberal Renew group, which is at odds with another rising radical right group, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
The ECR includes Meloni’s party and groups from Poland and Spain.
The “grand coalition” bringing together the conservative EPP, the Social Democrats and Renew “should remain in the majority in the European Parliament, but will undoubtedly be weakened,” said expert Chopin.
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A study by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank said the coalition could win 54% of the seats this year, compared to the 60% it currently holds.
The far-right is already putting pressure on the EU institutions, for example by supporting the farmers’ revolt in recent weeks.
If it emerges stronger than the June vote, the far-right will likely push for a tougher immigration policy and make it even more difficult to pass legislation in some areas, especially the environment.
The far right will also move to block increased EU integration.
Source: AFP
