(Bloomberg) — South African scientists plan to examine some 8.5 million death certificates to determine how many people the country’s reliance on coal for electricity is killing.
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The review is the first of its kind in Africa as it will rely on actual data rather than modeling of the health effects of air pollution. It is the latest effort to understand the health impacts of the nation’s fleet of 14 coal-fired power plants that provide more than 80 percent of the nation’s electricity.
“We will provide the most comprehensive review. We will analyze mortality,” said Caradee Wright, the researcher leading the study. “We will look at all causes, respiratory and heart related diseases.”
Previous studies have modeled the annual number of deaths caused by pollution from the state-owned power company, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., at more than 2,000 a year, while the utility’s own research puts the death toll at 330.
South Africa’s reliance on coal has given the country of 62 million the most carbon-intensive economy of any nation with a population of more than four million.
The research is being carried out by scientists from the state-affiliated Medical Research Council of South Africa, where Wright heads the Climate Change and Health Research Programme. It will look at deaths between 1997 and 2021.
It is funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office as part of a $9.3 billion climate finance deal between South Africa and some of the world’s richest countries.
The study will aim to link mortality to emissions of pollutants such as particulate matter and sulfur dioxide in areas around power plants compared to areas with similar climates located some distance from the power plants.
It will also assess morbidity in the form of the incidence of pneumonia in children under five and the prevalence of tuberculosis, as air pollution suppresses the immune systems of those exposed to it.
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The review, the results of which may be published in the middle of this year, comes as South Africa delays the planned decommissioning of coal-fired power stations because they cannot meet electricity demand. It also comes at a time when particulate pollution from Eskom is at a 31-year high due to malfunctioning equipment.
Power plant emissions have been linked to diseases and health effects ranging from asthma and emphysema to heart attacks and strokes, as well as cancer and stillbirth.
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