Chad: Security forces kill opposition leader
Amid escalating tensions ahead of presidential elections scheduled for May, security forces killed opposition leader Yaya Dilo on February 28 in a clash at his party’s headquarters in the capital, N’Djamena. Dillo was a frequent critic of the regime and was an opposition candidate against his cousin, current President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno. The government earlier accused members of Dillo’s party, the Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF), of attacking the National State Security Service and attempting to assassinate the Supreme Court chief – allegations Dillo denied. Dillo’s wife and several other family members were killed in 2021 at the hands of the Presidential Guard, then led by Itno. While Chad has recently experienced lower levels of political violence than most of its neighbors, with fewer than 10 incidents per month on average in 2023, violent events increased in February for the third consecutive month.
DRC: Fighting escalates in east as M23 approaches Goma city
In February, the M23 rebel group approached the outskirts of the city of Goma, an economic hub and the regional capital of North Kivu province that was briefly seized by the rebels in late 2012. Fighting involving M23 increased by 15% in February compared to the previous month. third consecutive month of escalation of conflicts. The Rwandan military forces (RDF) also continued to operate alongside M23, drawing international condemnation. France has joined a growing group of countries calling on Rwanda to end hostilities in the DRC and end its support for the M23. In February, M23 overran several areas around the Bahunde leadership, fighting against Congolese military forces and allied armed groups operating under the banner of the Wazalendo coalition. Congolese forces risk being isolated from other parts of the country as the M23 controls an increasing number of main roads to Goma. As the violence approached the residential areas around Goma, many civilians fled for safety.
Ethiopia: Conflicts increased in Oromia and Amhara
Fighting between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — increased in the Oromia region in February. The two sides met for peace talks in Tanzania late last year, but failed to reach an agreement and have since resumed hostilities. In Amhara, ongoing fighting pits the ENDF against the Fano militias. The violence in the Amhara region prompted the ENDF to close roads and implement a state of emergency in the Central Shewa region. Fighting also broke out between ethnic militias last month in a disputed territory of the Southern Tigray Zone between Amhara and Tigray regions, the first escalation of conflict in that region since October 2022. The increased clashes in Oromia and Amhara regions have collectively led to rate of 65%. increase in the number of combat incidents in Ethiopia last month compared to January.
Senegal: Protests erupt over delayed elections
President Macky Sall’s controversial decision to postpone the planned February 25 vote until December led to a surge in protests last month, more than doubling compared to last year’s average. The majority of the protests remained peaceful, with security forces breaking up numerous gatherings, resulting in five deaths and dozens of injuries. President Sall, in power since 2012, justified the election postponement citing disputes over the exclusion of potential candidates and corruption in the electoral process. Parliament finally approved the delay until December 15, 2024, after security forces forcibly entered the parliament building to remove opposition MPs who challenged the bill. The late election would extend Sol’s presidency beyond the end of his second term, which is currently being considered by a national dialogue committee.
South Africa: Protests grow as May elections approach
Amid polls showing declining support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on February 20 that South Africa’s 2024 general election would be held on May 29. The upcoming vote prompted many to take to the streets and voice demands to the political establishment, with protests increasing by more than 50% in February compared to the previous month. Over 80% of the rallies remained peaceful, with unrest widely dispersed across the country. The largest number of incidents occurred in Gauteng province, an area of growing opposition to the ruling ANC. Across South Africa, at least 40 protests last month involved concerns about poor provision of public services, including water shortages, bad roads and power outages. The poor delivery of public services has become an increasingly important political issue in South Africa, with frustrations over corruption, mismanagement and legacies of inequality from the apartheid regime.13 Opposition parties have sought to draw on these frustrations before since the elections, sharing manifestos with specific points related to service delivery issues, particularly the challenges of load shedding.