The Greater Horn of Africa¹ faces a convergence of increasingly recurrent and intensifying climate crises, notably drought and flood, conflict, disease epidemics and economic crises. These, including the impact of El Niño conditions, are driving millions of people into displacement, acute food insecurity and malnutrition, public health emergencies and impoverishment. The region accounts for nearly 64 million people in need, one-fifth of the world’s people in need, mostly in Sudan and Ethiopia. And yet humanitarian funding remains very low. Urgent humanitarian resources, climate crisis mitigation measures, peace and security solutions and sustainable solutions to prevent large-scale humanitarian disasters in some regions are desperately needed.
MESSAGES-KEYS
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With nearly 64 million people in need of humanitarian and protection assistance across the Horn of Africa, the region accounts for nearly 22 per cent of the global humanitarian burden in 2024, Sudan and Ethiopia alone are two of the world’s top five humanitarian crises. The crisis in Sudan accounts for nearly 40 percent (25 million people) of the regional total, followed by Ethiopia (21 million), South Sudan (9 million) and Somalia (8.3 million).
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Humanitarians are sounding the alarm about escalating hunger in some countries in the region due to climate shocks and conflicts. High levels of acute food insecurity prevail in various parts of the region, following the 2023 El Nino-triggered storm, five consecutive below-average rains that led to one of the worst droughts in recent history, as well as ongoing conflict and financial challenges. An estimated 58.4 million people were highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+) in January 2024 in the region. There is a window of opportunity to avoid large-scale humanitarian disasters in some regions, notably Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia, if funding is urgently scaled up and humanitarian access is expanded.
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Millions of children’s and women’s lives are at increased risk of death and other long-term consequences due to high rates of malnutrition. Acute food insecurity, conflict and a high prevalence of infectious diseases contribute to high rates of malnutrition, exacerbated by the 2023 El Niño-induced floods and the prolonged effects of drought. This is in addition to poor feeding practices, limited access to health and nutrition services, and poor sanitation and water sanitation (WASH) practices. In northern Ethiopia, global rates of acute malnutrition exceed the emergency threshold of 15 percent. In Sudan the nutrition situation is critical with 700,000 children facing life-threatening malnutrition. In South Sudan and Somalia, over 1.65 million and 1.45 million children under the age of five, respectively, are acutely malnourished. An urgent response is needed alongside addressing the immediate and underlying causes of malnutrition.
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Multiple disease outbreaks, including cholera, malaria, measles and yellow fever, continue to pose a growing threat in the region, particularly in the context of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, and in overcrowded areas with limited access to water, sanitation and sanitation and poor living conditions. Scaled-up disease prevention and control measures are needed to limit morbidity and mortality, particularly among malnourished and food-insecure people in hotspot areas. Improving access to clean water sanitation facilities and promoting good hygiene practices is vital to contain outbreaks and save lives.
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The Horn of Africa is home to one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Displacement is traumatic and life changing. The latest estimates show that the East and Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes regions are expected to host 23.6 million forcibly displaced people by the end of 2024, mainly due to conflicts and climate crises. The Sudan crisis accounts for a third of that number, with Ethiopia already hosting nearly a million refugees and asylum seekers – Africa’s third largest refugee burden. Displacement has uprooted people from their homes, separated families and disrupted the living conditions, health, safety, livelihoods and education of communities, leading to further impacts on their ability to contribute to their local economies, to earn income, sustain a livelihood and invest. in their socio-economic development. If the drivers of displacement remain unabated, the entire region is headed for a humanitarian disaster.
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Climatic crises (drought and floods) have driven millions of people into poverty. Millions of people in the Horn of Africa are still struggling with the lingering effects of the 2021-2023 severe and prolonged drought (the worst in 40 years) as well as the impact of floods in the second half of 2023. The floods caused additional livelihood losses in the regions affected by the drought, including the death of some of the remaining emaciated animals that survived the drought, and the erosion of fertile soils, affecting agriculture. Recovery is expected to take anywhere from half a decade to nearly a decade for those who lost between 80 and 100 percent of their livelihoods.
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Current El Niño conditions continue to affect the Great Horn of Africa. Some areas in Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and north-western Tanzania are forecast to receive above normal and long-term surplus rainfall. While rains enhance livelihoods and water availability, they can also cause devastating disasters and cause disease. Drier than normal conditions are expected in eastern Tanzania and western regions of Ethiopia, Eritrea and South Sudan resulting in food and water insecurity. Early emergency preparedness, proactive action and response planning are vital, as is the integration of climate change impact analysis into development projects.
Denial of responsibility
- UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
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