Big picture: Data-centric teams will make it to the final
Here we are again on the biggest day of the Pakistan cricket calendar. A league that once glowed with promise actually flickered a bit more this year. Wedged between other T20 tournaments with superior financial strength, the PSL has struggled but almost maintains its grip on this small sliver of the window in February and March. The players coming in may not be as flashy, the crowds not as plentiful, but this is a genuine sporting product built on organic support, with fan bases that have been cultivated for the better part of a decade. And they’re not going anywhere.
It is perhaps surprising that this is the first PSL final between Islamabad United and Multan Sultans. This is, in a way, the PSL’s equivalent of Ajax vs. Barcelona – one team that blazed a trailblazing path and another that followed in their footsteps and eventually overtook them. United’s progressive, analytical model is the foundation on which the Sultans have built their empire and this is their fourth PSL final since United last reached one.
This year, for the most part, the pattern was repeated in the group stages, with the Sultans putting clear daylight between themselves and the rest, and securing the final spot at the first opportunity. While United added Mike Hesson to their coaching staff as they looked for a turnaround after a tenuous five-year spell that had seen them fail to make the final, there was no sign of things changing in the group stages.
Nevertheless, Shadab Khan’s side rallied when it mattered most, winning their last four games on the trot to qualify for the knockouts and then, crucially, doing so, defying a losing play-off record in the last five years. That that run included a nervy win over the Sultans to stay alive can’t hurt.
Both sides have made their weaknesses clear in the big group stages, so in a way, this game, like all others, hinges on United’s performance level, with the gap between floor and ceiling higher than any other team in the event. The Sultans, on the other hand, have a ruthlessly consistent run running through them, which makes them extremely difficult to topple, although United will be boosted by their superior final record.
If the last two finals were a triumph of heart and soul, this is the year of the return to the stroke. The headline is the data nerds and numbers gurus are back in the league, although of course to attribute the success of the Sultans and United solely to that is to dismiss the work each side has done between the draft and the final . The Sultans boast the country’s most astute coach and white-ball captain in Abdul Rehman and Mohammad Rizwan, while United have snapped up Hesson, a protΓ©gΓ© of Dean Jones himself. They have decided to attribute some of their success to Cricviz’s commitment to a more rigorous analytical approach to the way they understand data, and this has led them to the brink of glory.
Few can call the final based on how little there is to choose between these two sides at their best. But surely everyone can enjoy it.
Form guide
Islamabad United WWWWL (last five complete games, most recent first)
Multan Sultans WWLLW
In the spotlight: Naseem Shah and Usama Mir
Team news: Hales or Munro for United?
Alex Hales’ lack of form makes him the only real question mark for a United line-up that has won four games on the trot. If Colin Munro has shaken off a leg injury, expect two New Zealanders to open United’s innings.
Islamabad United: 1 Alex Hales/Colin Munro, 2 Martin Guptill, 3 Agha Salman, 4 Shadab Khan (capt), 5 Imad Wasim, 6 Azam Khan (wk), 7 Haider Ali, 8 Faheem Ashraf, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Hunain Shah, 11 Obed McCoy
Sultans have to fight over whether to play Khushdil Shah or Tayyab Tahir in the slightly long tail middle order. Neither was needed significantly in the one game they started, but fine margins in a final – as the Sultans know better than anyone – can make the difference.
Multan Sultans: 1 Yasir Khan, 2 Mohammad Rizwan (capt & wk), 3 Usman Khan, 4 Johnson Charles, 5 Iftikhar Ahmed, 6 Tayyab Tahir/Khushdil Shah, 7 Chris Jordan, 8 David Willey, 9 Usama Mir, 10 Mohammad Ali, 11 Abbas Afridi
Step and conditions
The game starts slowly like all Ramzan games. Surfaces tend to slow down slightly as the night wears on, but not so much that it affects decision-making when tossing. Temperatures are rising as spring begins, but Monday afternoon should be cool and pleasant, with no rain expected.
Stats and trivia
- Of the five maiden overs bowled this PSL, Naseem bowled two of them
- While the Sultans have reached three finals to Islamabad United’s two, United have a superior record in the competition for the trophy. They have won each of their two finals, with the Sultans triumphing once in three such matches
Danyal Rasool is ESPNcricinfo’s Pakistan correspondent. @Danny61000