The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should redouble efforts to win back the three Sahelian countries – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – that recently left the regional bloc, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has urged. .
In a new report, titled “What turmoil in ECOWAS means for Nigeria and regional stability”, the Brussels-based conflict prevention and peacebuilding organization warns that “a broken ECOWAS will erode decades of economic, political and security efforts in West Africa”.
The report, published on its website on March 29, observes that the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger will jeopardize joint efforts to curb security challenges, including jihadist insurgencies, banditry, transnational organized crime, as well as the economy of West Africa.
Although the three nations account for only 17.4 percent of the region’s population and 10 percent of its $761 billion gross domestic product, the ICG says failure to reverse their withdrawal will reduce the size of the ECOWAS market and it can stop many projects worth more than $500 million.
The report warns that the countries’ animosity may prolong military rule, as the juntas will no longer be under pressure from ECOWAS to restore democracy. The Crisis Group further warns that their withdrawal could embolden other member states, risking the dissolution of the union.
On Nigeria, the ICG reports that the division raises concerns as “The turmoil in ECOWAS is, at least in part, a reflection of Nigeria’s declining influence in West Africa”, a slide that began a decade ago but “has worsened significantly during during the eight years The lethargic presidency of Muhammadu Buhari”.
The Crisis Group warns that regional discord could exacerbate insecurity in northern Nigeria, saying a weakened ECOWAS shrinks the country’s influence and “could erode the support Nigeria needs in its bid for permanent membership in a reformed Council of UN Security”.
The report, however, reaffirms ECOWAS’ commitment to dialogue with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, admitting that while accepting them seems “a very tall order”, the bloc and its chairman, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, they should redouble efforts, particularly in five key areas.
First, Crisis Group urges new talks with junta leaders through credible third parties, such as respected religious and traditional leaders, prominent figures (including members of the ECOWAS Committee of the Wise), prominent women leaders and credible representatives of civil society.
The ICG charges ECOWAS to address the grievances of breakaway countries and review its programs and activities to assure all members that it remains aligned (or realigned) with its original mandate. It urges the bloc to help nations deal with insurgencies and activate the long-proposed regional counter-terrorism force.
The ICG calls on ECOWAS to recognize the growing anti-French sentiments in French-speaking countries, to publicly demand fair relations between them and Paris, and to seek opportunities to reassert its own autonomy in order to dispel the impression among some citizens that it is telepathically controlled by the West powers.
The organization advises Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to reconsider their current hard-line stance and grasp the olive branches extended to them by ECOWAS, “for the sake of regional optimism and security and out of respect for the civil and political rights of citizens their”.
The International Crisis Group says that if all reconciliation efforts ultimately fail, the regional body should seek an agreement with the breakaway countries, “for a graduated disengagement from the bloc and then peaceful coexistence.”
The agreement, according to the report, should include “procedures and timetables for the relocation of ECOWAS services and personnel to Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger”, and also “clarify the status of citizens of the two blocs, regarding their rights to movement. work and stay in the other block’.