Central African Republic: Deadliest targeting of civilians by Russian mercenaries in more than a year
In March, Russian mercenaries carried out numerous attacks on mining sites in Kotabara and Zaranga, Uham province, killing around 60 civilians, injuring others and forcing survivors to carry stolen goods and gold. While events targeting civilians by the Wagner group have been higher in recent months, March was the deadliest for civilians since February 2022, when Wagner was involved in counterattack against rebel groups. Since the arrival of the Wagner Group — renamed Africa Corps across the continent following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and changes in key leadership closer to Russia’s Ministry of Defense1 — in the Central African Republic, many operations aim to gain control of strategic mining areas (*for more, see ACLED’s *Move out of the shadows). During efforts to bypass mining sites, the Wagner group often targets civilians with lethal force. Russian mercenaries have reportedly killed more than 900 civilians, making them the armed group that has killed the most civilians in CAR since December 2020.
Kenya: Increase in al-Shabaab violence
Although al-Shabaab activity in Kenya had been on a downward trend since October 2023, this changed in March with an uptick in militant events. ACLED records at least a dozen violent events involving al-Shabaab last month, resulting in at least 29 reported deaths and marking March as the deadliest month since September 2023. More than half of the violence involved battles with state forces, as al-Shabaab aimed to disrupt military convoys heading to Somalia and attack police stations in northern counties. Militants planted numerous IEDs, which destroyed military vehicles in a convoy near Shangaani, Lamu County, and led to at least 18 reported deaths. The rise in al-Shabaab activity comes as Somalia gained full membership in the East African Community (EAC) on March 4, but the opening of its border with Kenya remains in the distance (*for more, see ACLED’s *Kenya: Protests, Gangs and Kenya-Somalia Relations). The Kenyan government closed the border with Somalia in 2011 to curb cross-border violence by al-Shabaab.2
**Nigeria: **Mass kidnappings by bandits in Kaduna and Sokoto states-
Large-scale kidnappings continued last month in Nigeria’s northwest region. Between March 7 and 12 in Kaduna and Sokoto states, bandits — a diverse group of armed actors operating under different leaders — kidnapped hundreds of people, including many children. In March, the number of kidnapping incidents more than doubled in Kaduna, but remained lower than the previous month in Sokoto. Several factors may be driving the recent mass kidnappings, including increased revenue from group kidnappings relative to individual kidnappings for ransom, leveraging Ramadan for higher ransoms by the government, and the use of abductees in prisoner exchanges for detained bandit members (*for more, seeThis brief was produced jointly with the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime). In efforts to recover the abducted children, the federal government invited Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, an Islamic cleric in Kaduna state, to facilitate dialogue with bandit leaders.3
South Africa: Rise in KwaZulu-Natal protests
Ahead of presidential elections in May, protests increased by more than 20% in March from the previous month in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province — with many gathering to share concerns about power cuts and wage increases .4 March was the third month in a row of increased protests in the KZN province, with most events concentrated in the Durban urban area. The major political parties echo these popular grievances, also emphasizing employment, an end to load shedding and solutions to address the high cost of living.5 The ruling ANC party faces declining support in KZN province, home to almost 21% of the registered population.6 Worryingly, riots more than doubled last month compared to February. A strategic political battleground even before the end of apartheid in 1994, KZN province was also the focus violence targeting local government officials in South Africa.
Sudan: SAF continues to retake strategic areas in Greater Khartoum
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) continued to regain control of areas in greater Khartoum from the Rapid Support Force (RSF) in March. ACLED records 15 incidents of land grabbing by the SAF in greater Khartoum in March, continuing an upward trajectory in the number of such incidents since January. The SAF mostly regained territory in areas of Omdurman. Strategically, military forces recaptured the national radio and television broadcasting headquarters in the al-Mulazmin district and cut the RSF’s supply line across the Nile River. The RSF’s focus on areas outside Khartoum — particularly Kordofan, al-Jazirah and Darfur — shifted resources from defensive positions in Omdurman, where its forces were increasingly encircled by the SAF (*for more , seeSudan: Escalating conflict in Khartoum and attacks on civilians in al-Jazirah and South Kordofan). While the RSF made strong advances in the last quarter of 2023 and overran areas—notably in Darfur, Kordofan and al-Jazirah—these advances slowed significantly in 2024.