Alex Keble breaks down where the upcoming Matchday 34 games could be won and lost, including:
– Can Burnley turn it around?
– Will Arsenal’s tough away challenge end?
– Villa to pressure Sgray?
– Can Fulham add to Liverpool’s woes?
– Will Glasner build on Liverpool’s statement win?
– Will set pieces prove decisive for Everton?
– Can Luton claim another crucial home win?
Can Burnley turn things around?
Burnley came very close to returning to the relegation battle, losing just one of their last six Premier League games and picking up seven points.
Had it not been for goalkeeping errors, it would have been 10 points, which would have put them three points clear of Nottingham Forest in 17th place.
A fortnight ago Arijanet Muric played a pass straight to Dominic Calvert-Lewin and the ball curled into the net to give Everton a 1-0 win at Goodison Park. Seven days later, Muric let a backpass slip under his foot to gift Brighton & Hove Albion an equaliser.
Muric and Burnley cannot let these mistakes eat them up. Instead, they must take solace in a renewed competitiveness this month – and take their chance at three points this weekend.
It’s now or never. With Forest and Everton playing each other, victory at Sheffield United would move Burnley to within four points of one of the teams and Forest will go on to play at Turf Moor on the final day.
Burnley fans will be rest assured of the right result. Vincent Kompany’s side won the reverse fixture 5-0 in December and Sheff Utd, without a win in eight, have conceded at least twice in each of their last seven home games.
In fact, they have already conceded 84 goals in the Premier League, more than any team at this stage of the top-flight since Ipswich Town in 1963/64.
It has been a long and difficult campaign for both clubs. There is still time – almost – for Burnley to turn things around.
But it has to be now.
How will Arsenal fare as away games get tougher?
Defeat in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night means Arsenal have won just two of their last six matches in all competitions.
They cannot afford another slip, and yet a trip to Molineux is no easy task. Wolverhampton Wanderers have beaten teams that started the day in the top two twice this season, beating Manchester City 2-1 in September and Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 in November.
And while Arsenal’s away form has been impeccable in 2024, they have rarely been tested.
So far they have played Forest, West Ham United, Burnley, Sheffield United, Manchester City and Brighton, with the latter making it one win in five when they hosted Arsenal earlier this month.
This is at least a decent run. Before that, Arsenal had won just three of their last 11 away games of 2023 in all competitions.
Their remaining three away fixtures for 2023/24 are against Wolves, Spurs and Manchester United.
Things get a lot tougher from here, which is why a 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa could hardly have come at a worse time.
Arsenal fans need no reminding that their title challenge collapsed at the same time last season.
Starting with the draw at Liverpool on April 9, Arsenal have won just three of their last nine Premier League games of the season.
Mikel Arteta has reason to believe it won’t happen again. His team is stronger, more experienced and more resilient. But the rest of their games are starting to look difficult.
Doubt can start to creep in. The ghosts of last season may be haunting them. Arsenal need a win.
Can Villa put distance between themselves and Spurs?
Villa’s win at Arsenal last weekend was monumental. Not only did it give them back the edge in the race for the top four, but it provided a much-needed boost after some mild underperformance in recent weeks.
It was a typical Unai Emery tactical masterclass. a return to the form that had Villa outside of title contention in December and a timely confidence boost.
Defeats to Arsenal and Manchester City in midweek confirmed that Germany will take fifth place in the Champions League, not England. There is no longer a safety net in the battle between Villa and Spurs.
The visit of AFC Bournemouth is a chance for Villa to put some distance between themselves and Spurs, who are not playing this weekend.
In fact, Villa play twice – hosting Chelsea next Saturday – before Spurs play again, at home to Arsenal, meaning Emery’s side have the chance to pile the pressure on Spurs and gain a huge psychological boost. advantage.
If Villa win their next two, Ange Postecoglou’s men will go into a daunting north London derby nine points behind Villa.
Chelsea will be tough, but Bournemouth’s away form tells us that Villa really need to win on Sunday.
Bournemouth have had a superb season under Antony Iraola, who have bounced back spectacularly from a slow start.
Having picked up just six points from their opening 11 games, only the Premier League’s top four teams have taken more points than their 36 since November 11.
But most of this is due to the shape of their house. They have won just five away games all season and only one of those opponents, seventh-placed Manchester United, is currently above 13th-placed Bournemouth.
Bournemouth PL away win 23/24
Opponent | Score | Date |
---|---|---|
Sheff Utd | 1-3 | 25 Nov |
Crystal Palace | 0-2 | 6 Dec |
Manchester United | 0-3 | 9 Dec |
Nott’m Forest | 2-3 | 23 Dec |
Burnley | 0-2 | 3 Mar |
Will Fulham’s defense compound Liverpool’s scoring woes?
Liverpool’s wastefulness in front of goal threatens to derail their season.
Their 2.81 expected goals (xG) in the defeat by Crystal Palace was the most by a Premier League side to fail to score this season – and was part of a worrying new trend.
Throughout Liverpool’s three-game winless run – against Manchester United, Atalanta and Palace – he has scored just two goals from an xG of 9.10.
In the last six Premier League matches, he has scored nine goals from 15.9 xG, a worrying underperformance.
A trip to Craven Cottage is not what Liverpool need at the moment.
Only the current top three have conceded fewer home goals than Fulham’s 16 in the Premier League this season.
They have also kept six clean sheets at home and since losing 3-0 to Brentford in the first home game of the season, have conceded just 13 goals in 15 games (0.9 per game).
In better news for Liverpool, both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota should be fit to start.
Alexander-Arnold has created the second most chances (54) in Liverpool’s squad despite starting just 19 Premier League games this season, while Jota is the only Liverpool striker to exceed his xG, scoring nine goals from 4. 91 xG.
Jota in particular must strike consistently if Liverpool are to break down Fulham’s poor defense and save their season.
Can Glasner build on victory at Anfield?
The Oliver Glasner era began on Sunday. He has been in the job since February 19 and has taken charge of eight Premier League games, but the new Crystal Palace manager has not made it through despite a stunning 1-0 win at Anfield last weekend.
He had all the hallmarks of Glasner’s football: hard pressing to rouse the opposition, quick transitions and sharp premeditated switches in the final third. It was extremely impressive and an exciting glimpse of what’s to come.
Reproducing that performance at Selhurst Park is the next step, but it won’t be easy.
![The CRY tackle against Liverpool](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/04/18/d93b18fd-5c3b-4e43-b62a-5fc8b45e813a/CRY-tackles-v-Liverpool.jpg?width=1400&height=800)
![The CRY tackle against Liverpool](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/04/18/d93b18fd-5c3b-4e43-b62a-5fc8b45e813a/CRY-tackles-v-Liverpool.jpg?width=1400&height=800)
West Ham represent a completely different challenge and their tendency to sit back could force Palace into a slower possession game that Glasner would prefer to avoid.
Then again, West Ham have won just two of their nine league games after a European midweek fixture this season, drawing four and losing three. Any fatigue will be enforced by Glasner’s attacking midfield.
Will set pieces give Everton the lead in the top six?
Just one point separates Everton and Nott’ Forest in 16th and 17th respectively, making this arguably the biggest game of the Premier League weekend.
Sean Dyche’s side have a clear advantage, both in this encounter and in the battle against the drop.
For a start, they have played one less game than Forest, as well as having the benefit of playing four of their last six games at Goodison Park, while Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have just two more fixtures at the City Ground – and the visitors it’s Man City. and Chelsea.
As for Sunday’s match, Everton’s set-pieces give them the edge. They have scored 15 penalty goals this season, second most in the division, and top the charts for penalty set xG, at 16.06.
Goals in the penalty phase 23/24
Club | Set xG | Targets set phases |
---|---|---|
Everton | 16.06 | 15 |
Bradford | 14.82 | 9 |
Liverpool | 12.71 | 12 |
Arsenal | 12.49 | 18 |
West Ham | 12.36 | 10 |
This is significant because Forest have conceded more goals without a penalty, with 21, than any other team in the Premier League this season.
Everton’s corners and free-kicks will be a constant threat, then, even if the hosts continue to struggle to score, scoring two or more goals in a game just once in 2024.
Can Luton build on their home form at this crucial juncture?
Luton Town beat Bournemouth 2-1 in their last match at Kenilworth Road.
They are yet to win back-to-back Premier League competitions this season, which must change if Luton are to catch Everton, Notm Forest or weekend rivals Brentford in the bottom three.
A 5-1 defeat by Manchester City last weekend put their last major game out of action.
Their only remaining opponents in today’s top 10 are eighth-placed West Ham, and more importantly, Luton have three wins at Kenilworth Road: Brentford, Everton and Fulham.
Win all three and Luton – just a point behind Forest – will surely stay up.
Luton’s remaining games
Rob Edwards was a bit unlucky with the timing of this first one.
Brentford are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games, a significant improvement on a run of 14 defeats from 18 previously, and will be highly motivated to get the win that would likely secure their Premier League status for another season.