The comments point to an apparent decline in the West’s reputation in Africa and the rise of China and Russia’s stake in some countries, a shift that some observers say is due to broader changes in the international system.
The statements by the Ugandan and Congolese presidents came days after US polling firm Gallup published a study suggesting the US lost its position as the biggest global power in Africa last year.
According to the survey, Washington’s average approval rating – an indicator of a country’s soft power – fell from 59 percent in 2022 to 56 percent in 2023. Meanwhile, China’s approval in the region rose by 6 percentage points, from 52 percent in 2022 to 58 percent in 2023, two points ahead of the US.
For Russia, the median approval of its leadership rose to 42 percent, up from 34 percent a year earlier, according to Gallup.
The decline for the US was particularly dramatic in Uganda, where its approval ratings fell 29 points from 63 percent in 2022.
It’s an essential task, but according to John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, the US is playing “catch up” with China and Russia.
He said that assuming at least some of the administration’s commitments were kept and the projects implemented, it may take time for the benefits to “trickle down” and manifest in an increase in favorability.
Calabrese said that until recently, US policy on Africa was heavily skewed towards counter-terrorism and security, which could be met with wariness by some African leaders, influencers and sections of the general public. Furthermore, he said such efforts may be perceived as failures.
In addition, the White House is “hampered by US law, which prohibits the provision of funds to governments that have come to power through coups. Moscow and Beijing, of course, have no such restrictions or limitations,” Calabrese said.
He said Beijing and Moscow had successfully exploited the flaws or dilemma faced by the US in dealing with the Israel-Gaza conflict. “They have aligned themselves with other leading members of the so-called Global South, such as Africa, in disapproving of US or Western policies,” Calabrese said.
He said that in its unconditional support for Israel – which is widely seen as an “occupying” power – the US is seen as an accomplice, unlike Russia and China, neither of which colonized Africa, and thus have some “popular appeal”.
According to Gustavo de Carvalho, senior researcher on Africa’s relations with global powers, Brics and multilateralism at the South African Institute of International Affairs, the challenge for the US was particularly clear in West Africa.
“In the case of West Africa, I think it’s more a case of the West losing influence and Russia filling a certain security demand gap. The relationship between Western countries and the Sahelian governments has broken down so recently that Russia has taken advantage of the vacuum it left behind,” de Carvalho said, referring to North-Central Africa.
“It is important to note that China’s presence does not necessarily equate to dominance. China tends to be more interested in securing economic benefits and market access rather than using its influence as a direct tool to contain the West,” said de Carvalho.
Seifudein Adem, a researcher at the JICA Ogata Peace and Development Research Institute in Tokyo, Japan, said the challenge to US foreign policy in Africa was systemic.
“The different diplomatic outcomes of foreign power diplomacy in Africa have little to do with the inherent and distinctive features of their approaches. More fundamentally, they are rooted in the structural changes happening before our eyes in the international system,” Adem said.
China and Russia had increased their influence by doing some things right, but a bigger factor was the international political environment that favored anti-hegemonic powers, including China and Russia – a coalition of emerging and disaffected powers.
“These forces are at odds with some aspects of the current liberal international order created and managed – and mismanaged – by the US since the end of World War II. China, Russia and others are seeking to replace this series with an alternative,” said Adem, who is also a professor at Doshisha University in Japan.
“The new class is the antithesis of the old and is on the rise. The existing order is on the defensive and has inherent disadvantages in geopolitical terms.
“Regardless of what China and Russia do or don’t do in Africa, or what the US does or doesn’t do in response, this general trend is likely to continue.”
But Michael Chege, a professor of political economy at the University of Nairobi, said he did not think US influence in Africa was waning except in the Sahel region where resentment with the US and France was linked to their failure to eliminate violence. of jihadists. .
“Russia, not China, is the beneficiary,” Chege said.
Chege said Africa was a new continent with 60 percent of the population under 35 years of age. “When asked by [public attitude researchers] Afrobarometer some time ago where they would like to immigrate, the vast majority said USA and European countries. I don’t think that has changed,” Chege said.