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Key messages
- In April, which is the typical start of the main harvest across the region, the effects of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) remain unusually present in the deficit areas of Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique due to poor harvests that limit household access to food and income from farm labor and crop sales. In addition, the conflict in Mozambique and the DRC continues to limit households’ normal access to livelihoods, driving the effects of the Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Strong (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) effects are also present in the central and northern parts of most countries in the region due to the availability of food stocks from last year, the start of the 2024 harvest and some income for food purchases. However, below-average national harvests are expected to lead to an early start of the lean season in the region and limit household access to food and income due to increased competition for off-farm job opportunities until September.
- Short-term improvements in food consumption are expected in areas where households will have access to below-average harvests in April and May. Household dietary diversity is expected to be limited across the region following the effects of weather shocks on crop production, particularly in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique. In Madagascar’s Greater South, the harvest of cereals, peanuts and legumes begins in April, improving poor household food access. In addition, the upcoming harvest of other crops such as rice, beans, cassava and sweet potatoes is expected to further supplement household access to food and income in some areas of Madagascar in the coming months. However, in much of the Southern African region, the poor 2024 harvest and limited access to income in the post-harvest period are expected to maintain crisis (IPC Phase 3) and stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until September, particularly in the standard deficit -producing areas.
- The purchasing power of poor households will likely remain lower than normal after the harvest due to limited income-generating work opportunities and high food prices. Market supplies of staple foods are expected to remain below average following a poor harvest, particularly in most semi-arid and arid regions. In the few grain markets, prices are expected to remain high and higher than the five-year average and prices last year. Informal imports of maize grain into Malawi and Zimbabwe from Tanzania and South Africa are unlikely to meet local demand, with governments increasingly looking to import maize from South America to meet market demand and improve the national strategic grain reserves. In addition, various macroeconomic dynamics, such as high inflation and local currency depreciation, will likely continue to sustain high prices of alternative staples and other food staples, keeping household purchasing power lower than normal.
- Poor households begin to extend their commitment to standard coping strategies to meet their food needs earlier than normal. Harvest labor opportunities are limited throughout the region, mainly due to below average harvests. Other income-earning opportunities for poor households, such as petty trading and self-employment, continue to be constrained by increased competition and reduced liquidity among better-off households. Following below-average rainfall in the 2023/24 rainy season, water resources are rapidly diminishing or have already dried up, particularly in parts of Zimbabwe, and this will likely hamper the ability of households to engage in vegetable production, masonry and manufacturing for food and income in the dry season. Pasture and animal body conditions are also declining earlier than normal following the conclusion of the below-average wet season. In Malawi and Mozambique, significant rainfall in March and April will likely help support vegetable and livestock production and other livelihood strategies such as brick-making, fishing and artisanal mining. In Malawi and Zimbabwe, tobacco marketing is ongoing in isolated areas, providing some income for food and non-food purchases.