Direct flights to, from and within Africa are severely lacking, with many key routes still not served.
Director of Information and Advisory Services Airbus Market Geert Lemairespeaking at the AviaDev conference in Windhoek, Namibia, he told delegates there were several reasons for this.
Referring to Airbus’ report on commercial aviation in Africa, “Exploring the Horizons: A Study of Underserved Air Routes to, From and Within Africa,” Lemaire said factors such as restrictive bilateral air service agreements, economic variables, as well as challenges in capacity, frequency and operational efficiency contributed to these routes remaining unserved.
Of the 15 defunct non-stop ‘Top Tier’ routes to and from or within Africa, 11 previously had non-stop flights, of which four routes were still operating as of 2022. Of the 15, ten were intercontinental routes within and outside of Africa. (three of these were to and from South Africa β Johannesburg-Mumbai, Cape Town-Brussels, Durban-London). Five were international routes within Africa, (Cape Town-Lagos) and 10 were intercontinental routes.
The report highlights the following underserved destination that could make a significant difference to the aviation requirements of the South African economy.
Johannesburg-Mumbai
The last direct flights from South Africa to India were operated by SAA and were discontinued in 2015, Acsa’s Acting Group Manager for Traffic Development, Mpho Rambau he said Travel News in May 2024.
βCurrently, there is no non-stop service available between the entire South African sub-region and India. In addition, the route between the two cities has significant levels of origin and destination (O&D) traffic that exceeds that of many existing non-intermediate services to and from Africa,β the report states.
From the main transit hubs in Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Dubai, Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways, Emirates Airline, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways account for the majority of O&D traffic on the route to Mumbai.
“The routes are a significant detour, ranging from an extra distance of 10% for Kenya Airways connecting traffic via Nairobi, to around 25% for Qatar Airways connections via Doha,” the report notes.
The report reveals that only 4% of Johannesburg-Mumbai traffic chooses to fly British Airways or Virgin Atlantic via London and that this route distance exceeds that of a direct flight by 2.3 times.
According to the report and forecast traffic for 2026, the route will be able to support six weekly flights with a body width of 250 seats or five weekly frequencies operating with a body width of 280 to 300 seats.
Cape Town-Brussels
Between 2019 and 2023, O&D traffic between Cape Town and Brussels accounted for 48% of South Africa’s traffic to Brussels, followed by Johannesburg-Brussels with 45%.
“Traffic between Brussels and Cape Town has recovered quickly from the pandemic, with levels seen in the period from December 2022 to November 2023 exceeding those in the corresponding period in 2018 and 2019 by more than 30%,” it says the exhibition.
According to Airbus, the demand for this route arises as a result of the presence of around 200 Belgian companies in the country and around 10,000 Belgian immigrants in South Africa from 2020.
The current main transit hub for the route is via Johannesburg, with Air Belgium serving most of the traffic (these flights ceased in November 2023). The Cape Town-Johannesburg route is served by Airlink.
Airbus’ 2026 traffic forecasts document the use of four weekly 250-seat wide-body flights or three weekly 280- to 330-seat wide-body flights.
Durban-London
The Durban-London route was served thrice weekly by British Airways in late 2018 and was discontinued in early 2020 due to the pandemic.
The former direct route boosted traffic, encouraging an average of 8,200 O&D passengers per month, representing a 30% increase from the previous year’s average of 6,200 passengers.
The main transit hubs for this route are Dubai, Johannesburg and Doha.
“These travelers chose to connect via Middle Eastern hubs, resulting in significant detours compared to shorter routes via Johannesburg or Cape Town,” the report notes.
During the reporting period, Emirates operated flights to Durban from its Dubai hub, while Qatar Airways included Durban as the final flight on its Doha-Johannesburg route. Travelers flying with British Airways or Virgin Atlantic had to use other carriers for flights between Durban and Johannesburg or Cape Town.
Airbus cites the flights from Cape Town to Lagos as a strategic link for economic and tourism development, not only bilaterally, but continentally and internationally. These African cities act as gateways to international connections and a connection can facilitate increased engagement, collaboration and exchange with the transcontinental market.
Historical data actually showed a decline in traffic between South Africa and Nigeria since 2017. Traffic contracted at a rate of approximately 7.3% per year from 2015 to 2019,β the report said. The bottom line is that there is room for both Cape Town-Lagos and Johannesburg-Lagos flights.
The top five unserved intra-African air routes were Dakar-Libreville, Abidjan-Douala, Abuja-Nairobi, Cape Town-Lagos and Dakar-Douala.
The top ten transcontinental routes not served were Harare-London, Johannesburg-Mumbai, Lagos-New York, Lagos-Toronto, Entebbe-London, Lagos-Manchester, Cape Town-Brussels, Durban-London, Nairobi-Washington-Lagos, and .