In late February, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema declared disaster after realizing that the country had lost more than half of its maize harvest due to drought. Zambia’s 2023-24 maize production cut by more than 50% on an estimated harvest 1.6 million tons. The country must now import a record volume of 1 million tons to meet domestic maize needs 2.8 million tons.
Zimbabwe faces a similar challenge, with its maize harvest down by about 60% from the 2022-23 crop season to estimated at 635,000 tons. This is the lowest harvest since the 2015-16 production season, another drought. Furthermore, drought is not the only reason for the fall in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest. Although an important factor, reduced fertilizer use has also contributed to low yields. Fertilizer prices, while reduced compared to the previous year, are good above pre-Covid-19 levels, thereby adding financial pressure to poor smallholder farmers, the majority of producers in Zimbabwe. Fertilizers make up about a third of grain growers’ input costs.
This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production means import needs will increase sharply. Zimbabwe’s domestic maize consumption is typically approx 2 million tons. Thus, US Department of Agriculture analysts based in Pretoria estimate that Zimbabwe may need to import at least one million tons in the new 2024-25 marketing season is convincing (the 2024-25 marketing season corresponds to the 2023-24 production season). Such an import rate is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports 637,327 tons in the 2023-24 marketing season, all from South Africa.
In contrast to the 2023-24 marketing season, when South Africa’s total maize exports were 3.4 million tons, in the new 2024-25 marketing season, South Africa’s maize exports are likely to drop to 1.4 million tonnes. This is on the back of a poor domestic harvest. South Africa’s maize harvest is down 19% on an annual basisestimated at 13.3 million tons, due to the mid-summer drought.
Admittedly, South Africa has not experienced a sharp drop in production, unlike Zimbabwe or Zambia, where the domestic maize harvest is down by more than 50%. Part of the reason is differences in agricultural practices and improved seed varieties in South Africa. The major difference lies in the use of improved varieties of seeds, fertilizers and agrochemicals. Irrigation is not a major factor as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rainy. This is similar to Zimbabwe’s percentage of maize under irrigation.
However, Zimbabwe is likely to be the major beneficiary if the country’s private sector stakeholders and the government place timely orders. Zambia, another southern African country with a need to import 1 million tonnes of maize, insists that imports should only be non-genetically modified. Over 85% of South Africa’s maize is genetically modifiedwhich means that under current rules, Zambia may not consider South Africa as a supplier of maize.
One would expect Zambia to relax its regulations at such a time of high maize needs. However, government authorities have maintained this ban. It is already a challenge to find white maize on the world market, regardless of whether it is genetically modified or not, as the main producers are South Africa (specifically South Africa) and Mexico. Most of the corn in the world is yellow corn for animal feed.
Drought has hit the entire southern African region. Therefore, Zambia faces a difficult challenge in the coming months and is another country to watch closely towards the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025. It is likely that, faced with the reality of higher domestic prices of food and the scarcity of non-GM maize stocks, Zambia may adjust its policy.
We already are reading about the significant reduction in South African maize supplies; However, the full impact of the poor harvest on the consumer is likely to be more pronounced towards the end of this year and the first quarter of 2025. This is when the main consumers of maize in South Africa would have used much of the domestic crop, which provided a much-needed cushion in the near future.
Thus, significant upside risks remain to maize prices, mainly white maize, towards the end of this year and into 2025 due to this potential regional maize demand. DM
