Energy planning in Ghana as a model for the world

Led by Empa scientist Mashael Yazdanie, an international research team is exploring ways to better design for climate-resilient energy systems in the Global South. Their findings were published in Energy Reports and Energy and Climate Change.

Focusing on the case study of Accra, the capital of Ghana, the interdisciplinary team extended conventional energy system modeling approaches by incorporating a range of socio-techno-economic challenges, climate change impacts and resilience metrics into their models. Their approaches are globally applicable to support widespread transitions to sustainable and resilient energy systems.

What criteria should we use to better design resilient energy systems? How do socio-economic, technical and climate change-related challenges affect the design of sustainable energy systems worldwide? What does the situation look like in a region outside the European industrialized perspective?

With these questions in mind, four years ago, the Energy Modeling for the Real World Transforming Modeling Approaches for Sustainable and Resiliient Energy Planning (MEASURES) research project began an interdisciplinary study, using Ghana as a case study area.

The goal was to formulate modeling approaches that yield optimal recommendations for climate-resilient energy planning, taking into account several dimensions – energy demand, infrastructure, climate data, resilience and robustness of a system, and a range of socio-economic factors – that can be applied across cities and countries worldwide.

In their studies, the scientists paid special attention to issues that are not taken into account in traditional energy models: extreme weather events caused by climate change, climate migration, informal economic systems (that is, economic activities that are not monitored and are not included in the official GDP figures), unstable currencies, power system failures and reduced energy demand (e.g. due to poor infrastructure or financial resources).

Ghana, in particular, faces these challenges, which makes the region an ideal case study. Thus, Mashael Yazdanie, head of the Macro-Energy Systems group at Empa’s Urban Energy Systems Laboratory, spearheaded the interdisciplinary, international MEASURES project.

A specific course of action based on regional characteristics

The researchers examined a number of challenges related to the design of the energy system in Accra. What environmental changes related to climate change should be expected in the coming decades? How will these affect regional migration? What influence does the informal economy and suppressed energy demand have on strategic energy planning? To what extent will currency devaluation hinder energy planning and the development of sustainable energy infrastructure?

Using the open source modeling framework, OSeMOSYS, they developed an energy system model for Accra and investigated these issues.

The model yielded cost-, carbon- and resilience-optimized energy system capacity and operational planning decisions for Accra, taking into account unique local conditions.

For example, regarding the development of sustainable energy technologies under the threat of currency devaluation, the researchers find that “PV and wind energy investments are more affected by the increase in devaluation in the case of Accra. If PV systems are part of larger Accra sustainability commitments—as defined by the current Accra Climate Action Plan—our results show that these investments should be made sooner rather than later in the planning horizon to ensure affordable growth.”

According to their study, Accra should additionally focus on efficient capture and utilization of waste resources, as well as decarbonizing transport through fleet electrification for strong and sustainable urban energy planning.

From local development to global inspiration

The Ghanaian case study is not the only result of the MEASURES project. The researchers hope that their research will catalyze more integrated and meaningful approaches to designing resilient and sustainable energy systems worldwide.

In addition to the environmental disruptions we will face in the coming decades due to climate change, their approach also addresses various socio-techno-economic challenges that have received little or no attention in conventional analyses.

For this reason, it was important for the project team to share all methods and results in open access formats so that researchers and decision makers around the world can use them to inform and further develop methodologies, energy decision-making processes and long-term resilience strategies.

The results and tools of the MEASURES project therefore represent an invaluable boost to the development of future sustainable energy systems, especially for low- and middle-income countries that are most vulnerable to climate change.