In a shift from tariffs and strong-arm tactics to technological and investment restrictions, US policy toward China has become more targeted under President Joe Biden — though still hard-line.
Despite the differences between Democrats and Republicans, analysts expect Washington’s approach to Beijing will only get tougher, whether Biden or former President Donald Trump wins another term in the White House.
“I think the direction of pressure in Washington is absolutely in one direction, which is more aggressive,” said Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Already, Biden has largely maintained Trump-era tariffs, imposed export control restrictions to limit Beijing’s ability to buy and produce some high-end chips, and unveiled an order to curb outbound investment in China.
Officials are also looking to boost self-reliance in key areas, including clean energy supply chains, while further action is expected on data flows.
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Meltzer told AFP: “Right now there is congressional pressure to do more.”
Political, not partisan division
With citizens’ concerns about trade, business and manufacturing cutting across party lines, the preferred degree of toughness in China tends to be a political rather than a partisan divide, said Jamieson Greer, a partner at law firm King & Spalding.
Greer, a former chief of staff to the US Trade Representative during the Trump administration, believes there are two camps in Washington.
One sees China as an existential threat to the economy, national security, or both, thus justifying strong and broad protection measures.
The other is cautious about overestimating China’s threat and worried about imposing harsh trade and economic measures.
But both groups are taking risks associated with China — a shift that became apparent nearly a decade ago.
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“It became big during the 2016 presidential election cycle when candidate Donald Trump was very, very vocal about trade issues and China in particular,” Greer said.
Trump gave voice to something that many people “agreed with on both sides of the aisle” but were unwilling to say out loud, he added.
Different policies
But experts agree that a second Biden or Trump administration would diverge on policies.
The Biden administration doesn’t expect to “reach a deal with China where they make these big reforms and changes,” Meltzer said.
“It’s really about how do you adapt to China’s reality? How do you bring in allies?”
There is a “sense of derision from a security point of view as well,” he added.
But the Trump administration favored using American leverage to broker a deal that changes China’s behavior, Meltzer said, referring to the Phase One trade deal that culminated in a truce in the escalating tariff war.
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If Trump is elected, some expect to see higher tariffs targeting China, given his proposal for levies of more than 60 percent on Chinese goods.
The move could trigger retaliation from China, blocking trade between the world’s two leading economies.
“I think we’d see a lot more going back on tariffs, I think we’d also see a lot less cooperation with allies,” Meltzer said. “The US would be more isolated on some of these issues.”
Biden has shown a willingness to maintain existing measures on China while being restrained and focused on future moves, and that is unlikely to change, Greer added.
A second Biden administration could also seek cooperation with China on issues such as climate and have more room to engage — given reduced pressure to appear tough on Beijing to deflect criticism from Trump, analysts believe.
Domestic policies
The ongoing efforts to maintain the US lead in technology will likely continue, regardless of who wins the election.
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But a Trump administration could show less support for mainstreaming advanced semiconductor manufacturing through initiatives like the CHIPS Act or for heavy investment in electric vehicle deployments and other critical mineral supply chains, said Paul Triolo, China partner at The Albright Group Stonebridge.
But he added: “It is likely that regardless of who wins in November, the US government will continue to apply existing technology controls and expand controls to other technology areas.”
These include biotechnology, electric and smart vehicles.
Last month, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned that Chinese-made EVs pose security risks given the vast amount of data they collect.
Washington will also likely tighten restrictions on transfers of certain types of data to companies and organizations in China, Triolo said.
Source: AFP