There won’t be a rematch of the national championship game in women’s college basketball in 2024, but LSU vs. Iowa could be a blockbuster of an Elite Eight matchup. If they both make it that far, that is.
Who are the winners and losers of the women’s NCAA tournament? We start on the losers’ side, and it starts with the last two teams standing in 2023. Both aren’t going to make it to Cleveland. Actually, none can be there.
The Albany 2 Regional has three teams that many could have picked to advance to the Final Four before the bracket was revealed: defending national champion LSU, national runner-up Iowa and UCLA.
Who thought this was a good idea? Apparently the NCAA selection committee, which decided to round out that trio along with No. 4 seed Kansas State.
As ESPN analyst Rebecca Lobo said, South Carolina, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament and the top seed in the Albany 1 Regional, won — and received — what appears to be the so-called “easiest” regional. Iowa — a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1992 — should have won the second-easiest corner of the bracket, but instead had the toughest.
The Big Ten tournament champion Hawkeyes, SEC tournament runner-up LSU and Pac-12 semifinalist UCLA were all in the top four in the Associated Press preseason poll and are now in the top eight. Of course, poll rankings are one thing and NCAA tournament placement is another. Still, it’s a surprise to see them all together.
“At first, I just thought, ‘Oooh, this is a tough, tough area,'” LSU coach Kim Mulkey said of her first reaction to the bracket.
Let’s further break down the winners and losers of the women’s division and what the path looks like for undefeated South Carolina and Kaitlin Clark and Iowa.
Winners
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South Carolina Gamecocks
Two-time national champion South Carolina is in the Albany 1 Regional along with No. 2 Notre Dame, the No. 3 Oregon State and the No. 4 Indiana. The Irish are the ACC tournament champions and are playing well, but the Gamecocks have the advantage of having faced them already this season. That happened in November in Paris — a 29-point Gamecock win — and both teams have grown a lot since then.
The Gamecocks were so good that they were probably going to be “winners” regardless of their matchups. But coach Dawn Staley should be pleased with the run ahead of her team.
Center Camila Cardoso will miss South Carolina’s opener against the winner of Sacred Heart Presbyterian after being suspended for playing in the SEC Tournament final. This will matter little in this game. But the Gamecocks will be glad to have their back against the winner of the North Carolina-Michigan State, 8-9 matchup.
Provided the Gamecocks advance to the Sweet 16 — they last fell in the second round in 2013 — they could face a No. 4 Indiana team that hopes to be much healthier than its quarterfinal loss in the Big Tournament Ten.
If there is an Elite Eight matchup between South Carolina and Notre Dame, we’ll be seeing two of the best freshmen in the country in the Gamecocks’ MiLaysia Fulwiley and the Irish’s Hannah Hidalgo. But South Carolina’s interior presence and depth should carry the Gamecocks to Cleveland.
Ivy League
The conference fielded two teams: Ivy Madness champion Princeton and runner-up Columbia. It’s just the second time two Ivy teams have made the field (Penn and Princeton advanced in 2016).
The Tigers and Lions both finished 13-1 in league play, with Columbia handing Princeton its only league loss, 67-65 on Feb. 25 in New York.
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USC Trojans
Not since 1986, when Trojans legend Cheryl Miller had won the No. 1 program heading into Sunday. USC, the top seed in the Portland 3 Regional, had a breakout season thanks in large part to JuJu Watkins, the top freshman in a terrific freshman class. But as the Trojans proved by winning the Pac-12 Tournament final when Stanford focused on shutting down Watkins, USC is about more than its young superstar.
The Trojans have waited a long time — since 1994 — to host the first rounds of the NCAA Tournament again, so this is exciting for USC as well.
USC appears to have a solid run to the Elite Eight, where it could expect an epic matchup with Paige Bueckers and then-No. 3 seed UConn — by far the most decorated team in this corner of the division.
Texas Longhorns
The Big 12 tournament champion earned its first No. 1 seed since 2004. The Longhorns, like fellow No. 1 seed Iowa, did not win their regular-season conference title, but they did win the championship tournament.
After losing star guard Rory Harmon for the season in late December to a knee injury, Texas had to navigate Big 12 play without her. They lost twice to Baylor, Kansas State and regular season champion Oklahoma. In the Big 12 tournament, the Longhorns beat Kansas, K-State and Iowa State, with freshman Madison Booker winning the MVP award.
Texas has made the Elite Eight twice since Vic Schaefer took over as coach in 2020-21. He said after the Big 12 final that he believed the Longhorns had proven they deserved the No. 1 seed. The committee agreed.
“When you win a championship in a league, you play the schedule these guys have played, I don’t know what else we could do,” Schaefer said. “I feel very confident in this team. They have done nothing but show me that they can do it.
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UConn Huskies and Tennessee Lady Vols
Both teams could make waves in the bracket. UConn ran the table in the Big East this season. The Huskies could be motivated by a potential revenge matchup with Ohio State in the Sweet 16, as the Buckeyes knocked UConn out of the tournament in that round last year.
Tennessee, Portland 4 Regional No. 6 seed, enters the NCAA tournament smarting from a last-second loss to South Carolina in the SEC semifinals. But the Lady Vols know from the way they’ve played the Gamecocks that they can compete with anyone.
Tennessee’s potential run to the Sweet 16, which would likely include a win at No. 3 NC State in the second round, isn’t easy. But the Lady Vols have a chance.
Defeated
Iowa Hawkeyes
Last season, Stanford — the No. 1 seed in the Iowa regional — was eliminated in the second round by Ole Miss. The Rebels were then defeated by Louisville, who then fell to Iowa in the Elite Eight.
The road to the Final Four hasn’t been easy for the Hawkeyes in 2023, but it seems easier in hindsight for what they could face this season in Albany 2.
The potential difficulty starts from the second round. The Hawkeyes, who shouldn’t struggle in their opener against the Holy Cross-UT Martin winner, will next face the 8-9 West Virginia-Princeton winner.
Last year, Georgia’s ability to defend Iowa led to a scary second-round win for the Hokies. It could be similar if they face West Virginia, which leads the Big 12 in steals. Against Princeton, Iowa will face a schedule that upset Kentucky two years ago.
If the seeds hold, Iowa will have a third meeting this season against Kansas State. the teams played twice in November, with the Wildcats winning the first and the Hawkeyes the second. Center Ayoka Lee provides the power inside a K-State team that pushed Texas to the Big 12 semifinals.
If Iowa makes the Elite Eight against either No. 2 UCLA or No. 3 LSU, one of the biggest issues will be how the Hokies deal with the size inside for both teams.
UCLA Bruins
Positionally, the Bruins wouldn’t mind trading spots with Pac-12 rivals Stanford at Portland 4 or USC at Portland 3. But it didn’t work out that way after UCLA fell to the Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals . The Pac-12, in its final season as we know it, has three teams in the top two for the first time in conference history. UCLA seems to have the toughest road of the three.
The Bruins won an AIAW championship in 1978. But it’s fair to say that UCLA is the best program never to make the women’s Final Four in the NCAA era that began in 1982. During parts of that season, the The Bruins looked like they had a great chance to make that breakthrough in 2024. We’re not ruling them out, especially with a fifth-leading scorer in Charisma Osborne and a great sophomore class that includes 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts.
But being in this regional makes it tougher for the Bruins. If the seeds hold, they’ll have to go through LSU and Iowa back-to-back, two very different types of teams. Can UCLA do it? Yes, but it’s a real challenge.
LSU Tigers
The defending champs, the No. 3 seed in Albany 2, also suit our losers. However, their path does not look as difficult as that of Iowa or UCLA. For three reasons: One, they’ve already played the best team in the country, South Carolina, twice. The Tigers lost their SEC regular-season and tournament games with the Gamecocks, but hung with them both times. Second, LSU won the NCAA title last season, beating Iowa in the finals, so the Tigers should approach this regional with confidence. Third, Mulkey already has four national championships as a coach. This is her season.
Miami Hurricanes
Last year, the Hurricanes were one of the biggest stories of March on the women’s side. No. 9, they beat No. 8 Oklahoma State, No. 1 Indiana and No. 4 Villanova to reach the Elite Eight, where they lost to eventual national champion LSU.
But last year’s mojo didn’t carry over for Miami in 2024. The Hurricanes went 19-12 overall but were 8-10 in the ACC. Wins over NCAA Tournament teams NC State, Duke and North Carolina weren’t enough to offset some of Miami’s losses.