More than half of Africa’s population – about 600 million – lack of access to even minimal electricity. The difficult question to answer is how access can be expanded without increasing global warming by relying on fossil fuels.
We – a team from Rwanda and Germany working in the field of scientific modeling of renewable energy sources – set out to find the answer by building the Database of Renewable Power Plants in Africa, the first on the continent. It is a database of available open access data on hydroelectric, wind and solar energy sources that we have analyzed.
The database shows that some countries, such as Nigeria and Zimbabwe, have several projects in the pipeline for a possible transition from fossil fuels by 2050. And this 76% of the continent’s electricity needs could come from renewable sources by 2040. This would be the case if the capacity of existing hydro, solar and wind power stations were fully utilized and if all the stations currently in the plan were built.
76% of renewable energy sources will be covered by 82% hydropower, 11% solar power and 7% wind power. Hydropower has been the main renewable energy source until now, but falling costs for solar PV (90% reduction since 2009) and wind turbines (55%-60% reduction since 2010) mean that solar and wind power have the potential to lead to sustainable renewable energy options.
We conclude that combining the advantages of hydropower with wind and solar power would be a more viable alternative to hydropower alone. And that hybrid solutions would be the best option.
However, none of this can happen unless countries are willing to participate in transnational electricity sharing agreements. Furthermore, the provision of open access and site-specific data is fundamental to the development of an integrated sustainable renewable energy mix.
What the evidence says
We compiled the publicly available records of 1,074 hydroelectric, 1,128 solar and 276 wind farms into one database. These were both existing and planned units. We have included the location of each proposed factory for all African countries.
We then integrated the data into a harmonized and updated database. This is the first comprehensive overview of renewable energy plants in Africa including their geographic coordinates, construction status and capacity (in megawatts).
This database shows that some countries have several projects in the pipeline for a possible transition from fossil fuels.
Hydropower is used by Eswatini, Angola, Djibouti, The Gambia, Cameroon, Tanzania, Lesotho, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo as their primary or primary source of renewable electricity.
Other countries, such as Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, Libya, Cape Verde, Morocco and Tunisia, are lagging behind in renewable energy development. These countries are highly electrified and their economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
We found that hydropower could more than double to 132 GW. This would be the case if those units were built for which feasibility studies have already been prepared. The Aswan High Dam has an installed capacity of 2.1 GW and produces most of Egypt’s energy. So 132 GW would be enough to power many countries.
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However, hybrid solutions are more likely to provide reliable electricity to a growing population in a changing climate. The cost of wind and solar energy is falling while a recent analysis concluded that almost no hydropower will be profitable after 2030. If hydropower is not a favorable option under future climate change scenarios, wind and solar power will be able to step in.
Hybrid power plants that produce a combination of renewable energy sources are another option. A promising example of this is its installation floating solar panels on existing tanks.
Share electricity, data and experience across borders
To meet demand across Africa, we recommend the following.
First, that there is international sharing of electricity between African countries. This is the only way to ensure the supply of electricity from renewable sources in all countries.
Second, African leaders must also move away from economic development and incorporate the diverse interests of people involved or affected, such as local people, the general population, and governmental and non-governmental organizations. In the past, intensive land expansion of renewable energy plants has caused conflicts with farmers, national parks and industries.
Third, renewable energy development must include the interests of different people involved in or affected by new energy projects, such as local communities and the general population. In the past, the land-intensive expansion of renewable energy plants it has caused conflicts with farmers, national parks and industries.
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Fourth, governments must share experience across borders to avoid mistakes like damming the Nile River for hydropower. The Aswan High Dam, for example, disrupts it sediment transport down to the Nile Delta, threatening highly biodiverse wetlands and causing shoreline erosion, putting humans at risk. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, currently under construction, is a recent prominent example of need for cooperation and transboundary river managementespecially when dealing with possible impacts of climate change such as drought on hydropower plant performance.
Fifth, we are calling for a general review of how data is managed. All data must be shared and openly accessible worldwide. Countries need to share high-quality data, including data on their power plants. High-quality data is key to analyzing the different paths electricity development across the continent should take in the future. Such projections are only as good as the knowledge and data on which they are based.
African countries following this path will become global models for a transition from renewable energy sources.
(Jürgen Berlekamp, Charles Kabiri, Beth A. Kaplin, and Klement Tockner authored the research on which this article is based.)