No matter what happens in Sunday’s Wimbledon final, Novak Djokovic will walk away with a lead in the all-time Grand Slam match that seems permanently secure.
He will retire with a lead over Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer no matter what. Everyone else is so far behind that the numbers seem irrelevant. Does it really matter whether Djokovic has 24 or 25 majors as he begins his inevitable career decline at 37?
He might — just because of the type of guy Djokovic will be up against on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz heads into the Wimbledon final with a chance to make a lot of history. He could become the ninth man in the Open era to make back-to-back All-England Club appearances and just the sixth to complete the French Open-Wimbledon double.
But if Alcaraz wins a fourth Grand Slam title on Sunday, Djokovic may well have to worry about whether he has enough breathing room.
Sounds absurd, doesn’t it? Four is still a long way from 24. So many things can happen in a tennis career, from injury to lack of motivation to another worthy opponent coming along and taking his share of titles, that the chances of someone catching Djokovic they are big.
But based on what we’ve already seen from Alcaraz, and what’s almost certainly ahead of him in his development, it’s not crazy to think he has a real shot at reaching the 20s. Looking another decade and a half into the future, when Alcaraz is the same age Djokovic is now, would it be a big surprise if we remember that Wimbledon final as a pivotal moment in their Grand Slam rivalry?
Here’s the easy case for why Djokovic should feel at least a little threatened by the prospect of Alcaraz one day breaking his major record.
- Not only has Alcaraz won three Slams at the age of 21, he’s done it on three different surfaces. He won’t end up like Pete Sampras, who never understood clay. He’s not going to be like Ivan Lendl, who couldn’t cross the finish line on grass. Barring injury, Alcaraz is set to compete in every Grand Slam for the foreseeable future, and the fact that he’s struggled (relatively speaking) at the Australian Open to this point is mostly bad/unlucky timing. There is no doubt that he will eventually win there to complete the career Slam.
- None of the top group of younger players are in Alcaraz’s weight class. Yes, his rivalry with 22-year-old Jannik Sinner has produced some great fights, and Sinner has won his share of their fights (Alcaraz leads 5-4). But Sinner, who won the Australian Open this year, has not shown he is consistently good at physically surviving tough matches in the five-set format. Alcaraz has already outlasted Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and the rest. They can beat Alcaraz on the right day, but overall they aren’t really a threat to him. It’s just Djokovic and the Sinner, and Djokovic isn’t going to be around much longer.
- Alcaraz has already reached the stage where he can win a Grand Slam without playing his best tennis. For everyone else, things have to line up perfectly just to win one. Alcaraz entered this year’s French Open with question marks over a forearm injury, played at maybe 80 percent of his capacity with several bad spells during the tournament, but won it anyway because he was great in the clutch.
- If Alcaraz averaged 1 1/2 Grand Slam titles a year over the next decade, he would have 18 by age 31. This just doesn’t seem feasible at this point, it may be a conservative estimate of its capabilities.
- And perhaps the biggest factor in all of this: Alcaraz still has a lot of room to get better. His serve needs to improve. His shot selection can be refined with his experience. His temptation to go for the playmaker instead of the solid shot, which sometimes gets him into trouble, should lessen over time. Eventually he will learn to resist his dips in focus. As good as Alcaraz is now, he’s not even as good as he should have been in his prime.
Although it already looked like Alcaraz was a generational talent when he made his first Wimbledon final last year, putting his name on the Grand Slam record would have been laughable at that point. He had just one US Open title on his resume and was a significant underdog to Djokovic, whose seven Wimbledon titles trail only Federer’s eight.
When Alcaraz won the match in five sets, it was the first real tectonic shift in tennis’ power structure. Although Djokovic responded with an incredible slump, including a roll at the US Open, the boys took over the sport in the first half of 2024, while Djokovic’s health and motivation to keep physically as sharp as before were suddenly in doubt as he played sparingly. and badly from the Australian Open until the spring.
A few weeks ago, it didn’t seem likely that Djokovic would get that chance to add a 25th major this summer – or perhaps ever when he had to pull out of the French Open quarterfinals with a knee injury.
Djokovic quickly opted for surgery and the conventional thinking was that he wanted to be healthy, if possible, for the Olympics, the only major prize he has never won. Instead, he felt enough progress to enter Wimbledon, grabbed a very favorable draw and used his wealth of experience and grass-court prowess to reach the final without even having to push that hard.
At this stage in his career, this might be the formula Djokovic needs to add more Slams. Things have broken down nicely for him this time and the only real test he will face is in the final – a match he can certainly win.
But unlike last year, Alcaraz is the favorite this time. He knows how to handle Grand Slam finals mentally and physically, and his top level is at least equal to or maybe even better than Djokovic’s top level in 2024.
Djokovic may have enough in the tank to win a few more Grand Slam titles, but he’s never going to have a better chance than at Wimbledon, on a surface where his physical decline isn’t nearly as big a factor as it is on the hard courts. pitch or clay.
It’s a real opportunity to put more distance between him and Alcaraz in the history books. The way things are in fashion, Djokovic may need it down the road.