The coming winter will prove the “toughest test” for Ukraine’s energy grid, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, as the EU announced additional aid to help the country deal with Russian attacks on its electricity infrastructure.
Echoing a stark warning about Ukraine’s coming needs, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said she would travel to Kiev for talks on Friday with President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the ILO unveiled a 10-point plan to ensure its energy security war-torn country.
“We have to do everything we can to keep the lights on. And as winter approaches, we have to keep the brave people of Ukraine warm while keeping the economy going,” the European Commission president told a news conference in Brussels held jointly with The head of the IEA Fatih Birol.
The IEA report said that in 2022 and 2023 “about half of Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity was either seized by Russian forces, damaged or destroyed, and about half of the grid’s major substations were damaged by missiles and drones.
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“Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters… But this winter will be by far its most severe test,” agency executive director Birol said in a press release accompanying the report.
With Ukraine having lost more than two-thirds of its electricity generation capacity since the Russian invasion, the report warned of a “yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand”.
He called on European countries to expedite deliveries of equipment and spare parts to rebuild damaged facilities and called for measures to protect them from drones.
Von der Leyen said the EU would allocate an additional 160 million euros ($178 million) to help Ukraine during the winter.
These would include 60 million euros in humanitarian aid and 100 million euros for repairs and renewable energy, he said, adding that the latter amount would come from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets in the European Union.
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“I will travel to Kiev to discuss these issues personally with President Zelensky tomorrow,” von der Leyen said.
Winter heating
In the summer, when energy needs tend to be lower, Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity has already fallen more than two gigawatts below its peak demand of 12 gigawatts.
As demand for energy to heat homes increases in winter, the IEA predicts the country’s peak demand could rise to nearly 19 gigawatts.
“Strains that are tolerant in the summer months may become intolerant when temperatures begin to drop and heat and water reserves are depleted,” the report states.
The IOC said power plants destroyed by Russian attacks or seized by Russian troops, such as the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, urgently needed replacement or repair, while physical and IT security of critical infrastructure needed strengthening.
It also recommended increasing the capacity to import electricity and natural gas from the European Union, speeding up the decentralization of electricity generation and greater investment in energy efficiency.
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He estimated the cost of the necessary repairs and upgrades at $30 billion.
Concerns about Moldova’s energy security
Outside of Ukraine, the IEA report warned that the energy security of neighboring Moldova could also be affected.
Most of Moldova’s electricity comes from a gas-fired power plant in the breakaway region of Transnistria, which is backed by Russia.
Producing about two-thirds of the country’s electricity, the Moldavskaya GRES power station is largely powered by Russian gas imported via Ukraine.
But last month, Ukraine announced its intention to end at the end of this year an agreement signed in 2019 that allows Russia to pump natural gas through its territory.
With the taps off, both the plant’s natural gas supplies and Moldova’s electricity security would be subject to “significant uncertainty”, the IEA said.
As a result, the agency urged the country to secure its supply by strengthening energy ties with its European neighbours, “with benefits for the wider region”.
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Established under the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, the IEA bills itself as “the world’s leading energy authority”.
Although not a full member, Ukraine joined the organization as an associate country in July 2022.
Source: AFP