While the eyes of the world remain firmly fixed on Israel and Ukraine, Russia has been quietly building a new empire in Africa. From Sudan to Libya, from Algeria to Burkina Faso, Moscow is patiently assembling a network of African client states that will likely endure regardless of the outcome of events in Europe. African leaders currently out of favor in Washington are regularly lured by Moscow with arms sales, mercenary power and political support. In return, Russia gets customers, mining concessions, basing rights and naval access. Gradually, Russian President Vladimir Putin acquires strategic assets at minimal cost.
Russia’s low-cost, high-influence approach to Africa is not new. The Kremlin has frequently supported coups, deployed mercenaries, spread disinformation and interfered in African elections. However, three recent developments have greatly enhanced these activities.
First, while the war in Ukraine increased Western efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically, it also intensified Moscow’s search for new friends. Russia has been quite successful here and most African nations have refused to take part in the conflict in Ukraine. Last July, Putin hosted a successful Russo-African summit in the old imperial capital of St. Petersburg. Delegations representing 41 of Africa’s 54 states participated. They included the leaders of some of Africa’s most important nations, such as Egypt, South Africa and Uganda. Putin used the summit to promise free food for Africa and promote a new multipolar world order.
Second, Russia has taken advantage of long-standing anti-Western sentiment in Africa. Russian diplomats constantly denounce the slave trade and European colonial rule. Not surprisingly, human rights speeches delivered by former slave traders and colonial powers do not go down well in Africa. At the same time, Russia celebrates the Soviet Union’s support for African independence movements. Many African leaders studied at the Patrice Lumumba Peoples’ Friendship University in Moscow. The current regimes in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Angola all came to power with Soviet help. While Russian missionaries are busy converting Roman Catholics to Russian Orthodoxy, they make it clear that Russia is not interested in promoting Western social agendas on issues such as abortion and homosexuality. These connections and policies have paid off for Moscow with anti-French sentiment a key driver in the recent coup that toppled Niger’s pro-Western government.
After Niger’s July coup, Russia successfully used social media to further fuel anti-French sentiment and bolster the new military regime. In September, senior Russian military officers met with the leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso to develop a mutual defense alliance. Their security pact was signed in Bamako, Mali, on September 16. Ten days later, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of all 1,200 French troops stationed in Niger. Moscow has warned other African nations against using military force to restore Niger’s government, which is aligned with France.
Niger is not the only place where Russia has displaced French influence. It began in Syria, where General Sergey Surovikin played a key role in Russian support for the Assad regime, particularly in the capture of Aleppo. Having built the “Surovykin Line” in eastern Ukraine, the general now seems ready to operate in Africa. Last month, he made an official visit to Algeria to discuss aid against the insurgency.
Finally, chronic instability in much of Africa has provided many opportunities for Russian influence to expand. The governments of Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic, Niger, Burkina Faso and Libya, among others, do not fully control their territory. All face terrorist insurgencies or full-scale civil wars. Often hampered by human rights concerns, Western military aid has often proved insufficient. The Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group had no such qualms.
For example, after the NATO-backed overthrow of Libya’s Gaddafi regime in 2011, Moscow sparked a civil war by supporting the rule of General Khalifa Haftar. Largely as a result of foreign support, Haftar now controls more than half of Libya. With a relatively small deployment of only 1,200 troops from the Wagner Group, Russia has turned Haftar’s kingdom into a de facto Russian client state where Moscow seeks to establish a naval base.
After the death of Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s deputy defense minister traveled to Benghazi to assure Haftar that Russian military support would continue. Earlier this month, Haftar traveled to Moscow to meet with Putin himself. Many observers now expect that with Russian support and NATO focused on Ukraine, Haftar will launch an offensive to take full control of Libya.
Elsewhere in Africa, Prigozhin has used his company’s involvement in local conflicts to build a business empire that currently protects gold and diamond mines, protects oil wells and processes minerals. In the Central African Republic, Wagner even operates a brewery that successfully competes with French brands. Far from ending these lucrative operations, Moscow plans to bring them under tighter control by subordinating Wagner to Russian military intelligence.
Russia has arguably expanded its influence in Africa in recent years more than any other outside actor, but it is not taking over the continent. China, the European Union and the United States remain the dominant foreign players there. China’s trade with Africa dwarfs Russia’s trade. Britain and France have far more foreign direct investment in Africa than Russia. After the coup in Niger, France may well need to find new sources of uranium for its nuclear power plants, but African migrants are still headed for Marseille, not Moscow. While Russia is the largest arms dealer on a continent with simple, cheap weapons and the Wagner Group may provide praetorian guards for authoritarian regimes, it is the US Africa Command that provides extensive military training, coordinates regional joint exercises, patrols the seas roads. and conducts counter-terrorist drone strikes. After all, as a hot war burns in Ukraine, what we are witnessing in Africa is not a Russian takeover, but the jump-start of Cold War II.
David H. Rundell is its author Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the crossroads and former Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former political advisor to the US Central Command.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in search of common ground.