The new speaker may have averted a government shutdown this week, but the big showdown over spending was simply over by January.
Now, Speaker Mike Johnson has just two months to forge consensus in his caucus on a series of spending bills that lack full Democratic support and are already dead on arrival in the Senate and White House – all while facing conservatives who have already ousted a speaker and swing district members who are tired of walking the plank and passing tough bills that won’t become law.
It’s a recipe for another spending showdown, more infighting with Republicans and a series of complicated decisions for Johnson that members warn could have a much more lasting impact on his ability to govern his congress.
The chairman of the Freedom Caucus, Scott Perry, explained that hardliners are willing to give Johnson more time to achieve this, but that time is not unlimited.
“We understand the situation is not his, but moving forward we expect to see tangible results that will move us down in the right direction,” the Pennsylvania Republican said.
Rep. Chip Roy, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, warned that Johnson already has two strikes against him for moving a spending bill that didn’t cut funding and using a process to pass the bill that required support large number of Democrats.
“The swamp won and the speaker should know that,” the Texas Republican told CNN. “Look, he’s a good man. We will sit, we talked last night on the floor. We’ll see what happens next, but I can tell you that Republican voters are tired of promises to fight. We really want to see change. And so you know, we’ll see what happens … but our approach shouldn’t be taken for granted when they’re needed and then suspended.”
For months, hardliners have argued that they want orderly spending, meaning passing bills one by one out of committee and onto the House floor with a robust amendment process. But despite sticking largely to that model, Johnson faces the same problems that Speaker Kevin McCarthy faced: Republicans can’t even come together on their spending bills because of deep divisions about what conservatives and moderates prioritize, and that’s before the hard work of negotiating with the Senate and the White House begins.
Just this week, House Republican leaders scrapped plans to move forward with a bill to fund the Justice and Commerce departments after conservatives and some members from New York rejected a rule governing debate on the bill. They also left town before passing a bill to fund the Labor, Education and Health and Human Services departments. That comes after leadership had to pull two other spending bills last week because they didn’t have the votes.
Rep. Nick LaLota, R-New York, voted against the procedural rule Wednesday, arguing that Republicans should start focusing on passing spending bills that don’t waste time.
“The amendments will fail, the bill will fail, it won’t be sent to the Senate, it won’t be signed by the president,” LaLota said. “We’ll have to regroup. Go back to the kitchen, maybe pick some new ingredients, cook it a different way to make sure that the appropriations bills, which will not only fund our government but cut spending in the right places, are done with better thought, more intellectual honesty and not just for show.”
So far, House Republicans have managed to pass seven of their 12 annual appropriations bills. Each of these remaining bills presents a unique set of challenges with provisions that some parts of the party demand to be included and other factions say are enough to sink the bill.
What has played out over the past few weeks is almost an impossible game of arithmetic for the new speaker. Leadership pushed out a bill to fund financial services and the general government last week after district Republicans revolted over a provision that would have defunded a Washington, D.C. law that protected workers from discrimination over their reproductive choices. But the provision was a top priority for more than 50 Republicans, a source told CNN, making it impossible to simply withdraw from the bill without cratering support.
Conservatives were also poised to vote against the bill because it didn’t include an amendment they wanted to remove funding for the new FBI headquarters, meaning support was bleeding from both sides of the aisle.
Veteran owners have argued that if Johnson can’t pass all 12 bills because of Republican infighting, he should go straight to conference with the Senate on the bills that have been passed and then try to figure out a path forward. on the other disputed measures there. However, the move is likely to put Johnson at risk with members of the House Freedom Caucus.
“If they want to pass the other five bills, then hopefully they’ll help us pass the other five bills,” said Rules Chairman Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma. “At the end of the day, we don’t have much time. It is important that we complete these accounts.”
Members of the House Freedom Caucus argued that they have not supported some of the bills because their amendments have not been added. But appropriators argued that those same members have had plenty of chances to vote for their policy riders only to find that the support isn’t there to do what they want.
“We tried many of these amendments in committee, they did not pass. Now, they’re being floor-tested, they’re not passing,” said Representative David Joyce, R-Ohio. “They were promised an open rule and modifications. They had the chance.”
For Johnson, the Republican convention is only part of his challenge. Even if the House could pass all their bills. They will have to be negotiated with the Senate, which has passed just three appropriations bills but passed the other nine on a bipartisan basis in committee. The Senate bills are on a higher spending limit that more closely tracks the deal McCarthy and President Joe Biden negotiated in the spring as part of a deal to raise the nation’s borrowing limit.
“Time is wasted,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska. “At both sides.”
Schumer has yet to file the other nine spending bills, which Senate GOP bosses have warned could also make things more difficult in January.
“I think he wants to get the judiciary through (nominations) at the expense of the appropriations bills, which I think they have to deal with,” Murkowski said.
The reality is that there won’t be much time for leaders to come up with a solution. Passing individual spending bills with a robust amendment process takes time, and Congress has a long to-do list in December that includes conferencing and passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act, passing the FAA bill, trying to find a way to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which expires at the end of the year, and is also negotiating a package to send aid to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the southern border of the United States.
The first spending deadline will come on Jan. 19, just two weeks after Congress returns from recess. The second deadline will come shortly after on February 2nd.
“We just delayed the decision on whether there will be a shutdown or not,” said Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah.
CNN’s Manu Raju, Sam Fossum and Haley Talbot contributed to this report.