(Bloomberg) — Russian grain donation shipments are set to begin landing in Africa within days, giving new impetus to its bid to strengthen its influence on the continent.
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President Vladimir Putin promised to send free grain to six African countries with strong ties to Moscow at the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg in July. The move followed criticism that Russia’s war in Ukraine and its withdrawal from a deal that facilitated the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea was pushing up global food and fertilizer prices.
Shipments will total 200,000 tons by the end of the year, Russia’s agriculture ministry said, according to the Interfax news agency on Nov. 17, with Somalia and Burkina Faso the first recipients. Zimbabwe, Mali, Eritrea and the Central African Republic are also to receive between 25,000 and 50,000 tonnes of grain each, Putin said in July. This is a small fraction of what they consume.
Russia’s push to strengthen ties with African nations by increasing trade and deploying Wagnerian mercenaries to prop up unstable governments follows efforts by the US and its allies to isolate it in response to the invasion of Ukraine. However, it remains a minor player – its two-way trade with the continent was only $18 billion in 2022, a fraction of China’s $282 billion.
Research presented at a conference in Cape Town on Sunday organized by a foundation founded by former South African president Thabo Mbeki sought to dispel the idea that Moscow bears the main responsibility for rising food costs. Direct or indirect sanctions imposed on Russia and its ally Belarus cut global fertilizer and ammonia supplies by 40.8 million tonnes by April 2023, according to the study, which was backed by a fund founded by Russian fertilizer billionaire Andrey Melnichenko.
Ukraine and Russia are two of the world’s leading exporters of grains and vegetable oils. The war has affected global supplies of both commodities, with Russia bombing Ukrainian stores and ports.
While Russian fertilizer has not been subject to international sanctions, sanctions imposed on owners of companies that produce it and restrictions by the banking and logistics industries saw exports decline last year. They have since recovered, pushing prices lower.
The study’s analysis of the impact of the Black Sea grain deal showed that it helped feed some 95 million people but did not ensure that Russian-sourced fertilizers could flow freely to world markets. If that had happened, food could have been produced to feed about 199 million people, he said.
Billionaire Melnichenko, who has dual citizenship of Russia and the United Arab Emirates, was sanctioned by the European Union and the US after the invasion of Ukraine. He traveled to South Africa late last year to lobby politicians to support his calls for the EU to resolve fertilizer supply issues.
Pretoria has taken a non-aligned stance on the war in Ukraine, which has drawn criticism from the US and some of its other biggest trading partners. Becky spent time in exile in Russia during the apartheid regime and served as South Africa’s president from 1999 to 2008.
–With help from Paul Vecchiatto.
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