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With Lewis Jones, football journalist
7:40, United Kingdom, Tuesday 26 December 2023
Our tipster Jones Knows has you covered for the Boxing Day celebration of football as he offers his insights into an exciting slate of Premier League fixtures.
Newcastle v Nottingham Forest, Boxing Day 12.30pm
Those who followed me to Luton beating Newcastle 1-0 on 14/1 on Saturday played well. But I have to lay down my trumpet and completely change my opinion of Eddie Howe’s side now that they are playing at home again. It is in the form of chalk and cheese.
The home crowd makes a huge difference to the intensity and bite of Newcastle’s performances. They have won their last seven Premier League games at St James’ Park, conceding just one goal. I’d be surprised if they don’t deliver on 4/9 with Sky Bet.
The midfield battle will not be for the faint hearted. Ryan Yates vs Bruno Guimaraes will be full body. No Premier League player has taken more free-kicks per 90 than Yates (3.04) since the start of last season, while Guimaraes and Yates himself are in the top five for fouls won across the Premier League during same period of time.
Sky Bet are taking no chances with their respective fouls and card values, but there could be a way to get some value by combining their numbers in the Bet Builder. It’s 13/1 for both to be given away and 35/1 offered if you include the pair to commit two fouls each along with the option of a booking.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Bournemouth v Fulham, Boxing Day 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham, eh? It’s a forecaster’s nightmare.
They have gone from scoring 15 goals in four Premier League games to draws with Newcastle and Burnley. The volatility of soccer is right there. Or maybe it shows the importance of having a confident and firing centre-forward in your ranks.
Raul Jimenez, sent off early at Newcastle, missed the 2-0 upset of Burnley and is still missing for it. Contrast that with Bournemouth striker Dominic Solanke, whose hat-trick at Nottingham Forest took him to eight goals in his last seven Premier League appearances. Back on the horse, a wise man once told me. Simple but effective tips. Solanke can score again in a home win at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Sheffield United vs Luton, Boxing Day 15:00 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This might not immediately scream game of the day – but such is its significance, we might just have a cracker on our hands.
There are likely to be only a handful of games in the season that will put both of these teams in the winnable bracket and that goes for both of them. Three points will be the goal. Six times, indeed.
The goals market is where my interest has been piqued with 10/11 being offered on the game producing over 2.5 goals.
I bore readers with how the average goals-per-game ratio is at record levels this season in the Premier League, so any game where near Evens are available for overs automatically enters the calculations as a possible bet. There have been eight goals in the two meetings this season between Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton – a small sample size yes, but an indication of how these sorts of games will produce more attacking intent than what the expected models spit out. I expect excitement and goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Burnley – Liverpool, Boxing Day 17:30 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One of my betting tendencies is to back a fullback in the shooting market when he plays on his “wrong side”.
Kyle Walker-Peters and Joao Cancelo were prime examples of money-making opportunities, as the likelihood of shots increases significantly as they are likely to cross towards goal with their stronger foot. We might have another player to entertain. Step forward Joe Gomez. The right back will likely complement Liverpool’s left side with Andy Robertson and now Kostas Tsimika in the treatment room.
Although he is yet to score for Liverpool, his shooting stats are explosive, showing a clear understanding and preference for playing a more attacking role that swims against what the market expects.
In his last 171 minutes of action in all competitions, he has scored five shots with two of them hitting the target. Licensed to go on the attack playing for an attack-minded manager, there is huge potential at 100/30 with Sky Bet having two or more shots against a relegated side. The first goalscorer price of 40/1 is also attractive.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Manchester United v Aston Villa, Boxing Day 20:00 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
An exciting encounter this one and one where Aston Villa will be popular at 7/4 with Sky Bet for the away win. I have eyes elsewhere for a possible angle though.
Sky Sports’ Zinny Boswell and Jamie Weir analyze Manchester United’s 2-0 defeat by West Ham as their run of form continued.
Antony is slowly developing into a reliable client for Erik ten Hag out of possession as his performances of late have shown a marked increase in defensive responsibilities. It certainly speaks to the cause, albeit without the aggressive performance that its hefty price tag suggests.
This increased tenacity can be seen in his recent tackle numbers which are on the rise and offer some value in tackle markets with Sky Bet. He’s made 18 in his last five starts for United, so if he can continue on that trajectory in a game where he’ll be asked to back-up a lot against Villa’s proactive left-back, then 5/4 on him making two or more tackles and 4/1 to make three or more tackles are live runners.