Summary
- African airlines are expected to see a full return to pre-pandemic traffic in 2024, with passenger numbers surpassing 2019 levels.
- Carriers are acquiring new aircraft to expand their fleets and improve operational efficiency, with more orders expected in 2024.
- Despite the improvements, African airlines are forecast to remain loss-making in 2024, but positive operating profits are expected. New international routes are also expected to be launched.
The past 12 months have been exciting but equally challenging for African airlines. The year began with the goal of recovering from the effects of the pandemic, as well as improving business practices to match global standards. Growth is expected to continue into 2024, so let’s see what we should expect.
Full return to pre-pandemic circulation
Africa’s passenger traffic saw a huge recovery in 2023, with some countries witnessing pre-pandemic numbers as early as the first quarter of the year. Globally, passenger traffic is expected to fully recover in 2024. This year, it was around 99% of 2019 levels and will reach at least 109% next year. Regionally, all regions except Asia Pacific saw a full recovery in 2023.
Graph: Simple flight
According to figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger traffic in Africa is at about 101% of 2019 levels. The December report, titled “Africa Media Update”, notes that this is expected to increase to 105% in 2024. While traffic exceeded pre-COVID levels on a regional scale, this is not the case for all sub-regions.
North and East Africa were expected to lead the continent in traffic recovery this year, reaching above 103% and 102% of 2019 levels, respectively. On the other hand, traffic to South Africa remained below pre-crisis levels, with a full recovery expected in 2024. South African countries and airlines continue to be affected by long-standing structural and financial constraints.
More aircraft purchases
This year, some of Africa’s largest carriers, such as Egyptair, Ethiopian Airlines and TAAG Angola Airlines, made headlines with major aircraft orders. Other carriers received new aircraft from orders placed in recent years and from new agreements with OEMs and lessors.
Photo: Airbus
All these acquisitions are in line with the various fleet expansion and modernization strategies put in place by African carriers and governments. Ethiopian Airlines will continue to progress with its ambitious ‘Vision 2035’ strategy. Already with the largest fleet in Africa, the airline plans to add over 130 new aircraft over the next 12 years. Therefore, we expect more orders from the Star Alliance member airline in 2024. More importantly, the carrier will receive its first A350-1000 next year.
Royal Air Maroc is also expected to place large orders in 2024. Last July, the carrier signed an agreement with the Moroccan government to boost its fleet from around 50 aircraft in 2023 to more than 200 by 2037. To achieve this , plans to add at least ten aircraft annually. The carrier was expected to tender for 200 aircraft by the end of 2023, so that may be delayed until next year.
![An Aeronexus Boeing 767 is pushed by a tug on an airport apron.](https://static1.simpleflyingimages.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/41909583930_0a312bf4a9_k.jpg)
90,000+ hours on the clock: Africa’s 3 most used aircraft
One of them is over 50 years old!
With these orders, African carriers are also modernizing their fleets with more advanced and cost-effective aircraft to meet short-term sustainability goals. However, with industry-wide aircraft capacity shortages, along with these ambitious expansion plans, we may not see many airlines retiring older aircraft models next year, despite Africa being home to some of the oldest planes.
Airlines will remain loss making
In terms of the financial health of African carriers, 2023 was predicted to be a much better year compared to the previous 24 months. The companies have not published their financial results for 2023, but the 2022 figures showed a huge recovery after the pandemic for some airlines such as TAAG Angola Airlines and Air Seychelles.
Photo: Markus Mainka | Shutterstock
Despite the improvements, African airlines are expected to remain loss-making in 2024. According to the latest IATA statistics, all regions are expected to return to a positive operating margin by 2024. In Africa, net profits will remain negative, but the airlines will be positive operating profits.
IATA forecasts Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) to reach 2019 levels next year, while load factors continue to improve. However, costs will remain significantly high, while the gap between load factors and balancing load factors remains small, resulting in positive operating results but modest after-tax losses.
New international routes
One of the most notable intercontinental routes this year was Air Algerie’s Airbus A330 flights between Algiers and Johannesburg. We should expect to see more flights between North and sub-Saharan Africa, as both Algerian and Moroccan carriers are set to expand their operations within the continent.
Photo: Cristian Storto | Shutterstock
Morocco is also set to gain more international connections ahead of the 2030 FIFA World Cup and as part of a government directive to boost inbound tourism. Ryanair, already the largest European carrier with flights to Africa, is planning 24 new international and 11 domestic routes to Morocco next year.
This year, South African Airways returned to the long-haul market, with flights from Johannesburg and Cape Town to Sao Paulo in Brazil. Although no official announcement has been made, the carrier is eyeing a return to Perth, Australia, as an additional intercontinental destination. It also plans to have a fleet of at least 21 aircraft by February 2025.
Finally, 2023 comes to a close with African airlines considering a much better operational year than the previous one. However, several challenges such as infrastructure constraints, ridiculously high costs and taxes, lack of connectivity and trapped capital continue to slow down the growth of the industry. Stakeholders hope that these issues can be addressed in the near future to realize the full potential of African aviation.
What are your thoughts on this story? What else do you expect to see in Africa next year? Please let us know in the comments!