Key messages
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The effects of the crisis (IPC Phase 3) are present in most deficit areas of the Southern African region, as poor households have largely depleted their food stocks from the 2023 harvest amid high and rising food prices and limited of agricultural work opportunities due to drought caused by El Niño in November. In eastern DRC and local areas of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, ongoing conflict is limiting poor households’ access to subsistence income and food. Prominent (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) effects still exist in relatively productive areas of southern Africa, such as central and northern Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, high-producing areas of Zimbabwe and large part of Madagascar, where households manage to meet their food needs by stock harvesting and shopping. However, lower than normal purchasing power limits households’ access to meet their non-food needs.
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The distribution of humanitarian food aid continues in southern Madagascar and areas of Malawi affected by Cyclone Freddy. The expected increase in beneficiaries in January 2024 in areas of southern Madagascar will likely further improve classifications at the area level. Humanitarian food assistance to Zimbabwe is expected to begin in January 2024. However, there is likely to be a growing population in need of assistance due to the impact of below-average rainfall on crop production and rising food prices. In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, ongoing humanitarian food aid is being distributed throughout most of the province, supporting Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), but Crisis effects (IPC Phase 3) continue in the most conflict-affected areas.
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Dry and hot conditions in November due to the ongoing strong El Niño led to wilting of crops planted in October. However, moderate rainfall in mid-December supported planting and replanting and recovery of pasture and water resources, particularly in central and southern parts of the region. Prior to the onset of rains in mid-December, pasture conditions and water availability for livestock deteriorated, resulting in poor animal body conditions and animal deaths in some areas of southern Zimbabwe. Although the rainfall they receive from mid-December supports crop and livestock production. The delayed onset of rainfall has shortened the agricultural season and possibly reduced the area planted. Lower-than-normal planting is likely to result in lower-than-average job opportunities, affecting households’ poor access to income for market food purchases during the lean season.
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As the lean season progresses, food prices remained high in all monitored markets in the region. Core inflation is rising and remains close to the upper bound of government targets in a few countries. However, firm fuel prices in November kept transport price inflation contained, offsetting annual increases in food prices. South Africa and Tanzania continue to export maize to the region, filling supply gaps in deficit countries in the region. Zimbabwe and Mozambique have increased their maize imports from South Africa since August, with 129,000 and 88,000 tonnes of total imported maize, respectively, in response to an expected poor maize harvest in the coming months due to El Niño.
Suggested reference: FEWS NET. South Africa Key Message Update December 2023: Late start to rainy season limits planting window across region, 2023.