Representatives of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) met on Saturday to discuss a possible “blue-white alliance” to defeat the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in January’s presidential election.
Former Taipei Vice Mayor Vivian Huang (黃珊珊), representing the TPP, and former KMT Secretary General King Pu-tsung (金溥聰), the campaign manager of KMT New Taipei City Mayor candidate Hou You -yi (侯友宜), discussed how The potential alliance could decide which candidate would top the ticket and who would be vice president: Hou or TPP chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲).
Neither side was going to go into the negotiations in good faith. To observers it was just a game of revelation of exactly how one side was trying to exploit the other. It wasn’t about finding out what the voters wanted – it was about turning the game.
The TPP wanted the decision to be made on the basis of telephone polls, conducted by five agencies, half on landlines and half on mobile phones. the KMT favored nationwide primary ballots. Unsurprisingly, they failed to reach an agreement.
Transparency is a good thing, and both sides were certainly transparent about their intentions.
Given the respective resources available to the two parties, the TPP proposal makes more sense, although it has a hidden bias by defining mobile phone interviews, ensuring that young voters are included, as this is the demographic among which polls have shown Ko’s support is stronger.
The KMT’s proposal plays to its own strengths of organizational depth and ethnic distribution, and against the TPP’s weaknesses as a new party still finding its organizational feet.
KMT would not under any circumstances support an agreement in which it would enter the process at a disadvantage. this is not a “gentleman’s game”. Indeed, he has much more to lose in this than the TPP.
If the TPP loses the election with Ko at the top of the ticket, it would still have an impact and gain some support, and the party may even pick up some legislative seats.
If Ko plays second fiddle to Hu, he risks alienating voters who wanted to support him because he represented an unimportant party option — he was not aligned with the DPP, but neither was he aligned with the KMT.
His party stands to gain more legislative seats, and therefore political influence, if he makes a moral stand as an independent candidate.
Moreover, he would have few guarantees that he would not be completely sidelined as vice president, prove to be an ineffective player, and be injured in the next election.
By accepting second place on the ticket, Ko will bet big, but if Hu is not at the top, the KMT will bet the family heirlooms.
If Hou is the vice presidential candidate, the KMT would have become the third party, confirming its final decline.
For the KMT, Ko getting the presidential ticket is a non-starter. he would almost certainly prefer to withdraw from the alliance.
The lack of good faith is clear given the haste that was shown. The idea of an anti-Green coalition has been mooted since the early stages of the race saw Hu stumbling back to square one, and only recently has he gained ground, in full swing, not because of his own successes, but because of his mistakes and policies. clumsiness.
The idea of an alliance is not yet dead, but if the two parties move forward, it will be interesting to see what sway voters make of their transparent opportunism.
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