Turkiye, the converging interests of the Gulf States in the Horn of Africa
Turkiye last week signed a 10-year defense and economic cooperation agreement with Somalia, aimed at defending the latter’s long coastline and also rebuilding the fragile Horn of Africa nation’s naval forces. The deal received wide attention as it came amid rising tensions in the region over Ethiopia’s controversial maritime agreement with Somaliland, which is a region on the coast of the Gulf of Aden that declared independence in 1991 but is still internationally recognized as part of Somalia.
Somalia received an outpouring of support for its stance against the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal. Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation Council states were among several regional nations that supported Somalia, stressing the importance of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Over the past decade, GCC states have demonstrated significant engagement and investment in the Horn of Africa region, with the Red Sea regaining prominence as a geostrategic focal point, attracting competing global and regional actors aiming to expand their influence.
In Somalia, the Gulf states are key players seeking influence. During the Gulf diplomatic crisis that began in 2017, the Horn of Africa was an area of competition for the GCC states and Turkey. However, after the reconciliation started in early 2021, they focused less on dynamic policies that could harm their reconciliation path and instead adopted policies aimed at maintaining the stability and security of the Horn of Africa and could contribute in strengthening their interests.
Over the past decade, GCC states have shown significant commitment and investment in the Horn of Africa region
Sinem Genghis
Any tension that could pose a threat to the stability and security of this region is now seen as a collective threat by both Turkey and the Gulf states. The dynamics within and between African states are closely intertwined with the Turkish-Gulf normalization trend, and it is obvious that both the GCC states and Ankara will try to use their leverage to resolve the differences through dialogue.
When we mention the Gulf states, it is important to underline that it is the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia that have played a central role and have leverage in the region, particularly in Somalia. After the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, Riyadh reaffirmed its position on the unity of Somalia and the country’s sovereignty over its entire territory.
Even before the Somaliland conflict erupted, Saudi Arabia was seeking a closer relationship with Somalia, appointing its first ambassador to the country in three decades in 2021. Last year, the two countries signed a security cooperation agreement. Somalia has also participated in summits held in Riyadh, such as the Saudi-African Summit and the joint Arab-Islamic emergency summit, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud aiming to cultivate close personal ties with the Saudi leadership. Somalia has made it clear many times that it hopes the Saudi engagement will go much further, including deepening the security sphere.
The UAE is another player in the Horn of Africa that has ties to all competing parties. Prior to 2021, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates were engaged in a bitter rivalry in the wider Red Sea region, driven by their differing visions of the region’s future. But when Turkish-Emirati relations began to improve, the two states shared positions on some tensions, such as the war in Tigray, in which they supported the Ethiopian government.
Without addressing the root cause of insecurity in Somalia, it is difficult for them to achieve their goals
Sinem Genghis
From a trade and security perspective, the UAE attaches particular importance to Somalia, where it manages two key ports — Berbera and Bosaso — and has close ties to the presidency. The United Arab Emirates and Somalia signed a security agreement in early 2023 that improved bilateral ties.
Last month, an attack in Mogadishu killed four Emirati soldiers and a Bahraini officer tasked with training the Somali army. It was claimed by the al-Qaeda-linked militant group Al-Shabab, which had also previously attacked the Turkish mission in Mogadishu. Al-Shabab has described the UAE as an “enemy” for supporting the Somali government in the fight against the armed group. It is worth noting that this was not the first time Al-Shabab had targeted the Emirates. In 2015, he attempted to kill Emirati diplomats in the Somali capital.
Amid tensions in the region, the Somali president visited the GCC states. In recent months he has visited Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Qatar is another Gulf state that has confirmed its commitment to support Somali military in the fight against al-Shabaab.
Last month’s attack made it clear to the Gulf states and Turkey that without a solution to the root cause of insecurity in Somalia, it will be difficult to achieve their goals. Securing Somalia is part of the GCC’s and Turkey’s broader security concerns in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.
Notably, Somali piracy recently resumed after a gap of several years amid attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea. Thus, the new Turkey-Somalia agreement confirms Ankara’s position as an important player in Somalia, where it has a large military base that trains thousands of Somali security personnel. This base is the backbone of Somalia’s efforts to counter al-Shabaab.
However, in this context, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement and the defense cooperation agreement between Turkey and Somalia. While the Gulf states had serious concerns about the former, they appear to be comfortable with—though not publicly supportive of—the new Turkey-Somalia deal, or at least Turkey’s role as a security provider that could also serve GCC interests in the long term.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst specializing in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
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