The expected withdrawal of US forces from Niger will jeopardize US counter-terrorism operations and give Russia greater influence in Africa as US and Western ties on the continent fray.
About 1,000 troops in Niger are expected to eventually withdraw from the country following the conclusion of ongoing high-level talks between Niamey and Washington following a military coup in the African country last year, the Pentagon said.
A forced withdrawal from Niger is a major setback for the US military as it battles Islamic extremist groups in the Sahel, a volatile region that stretches from Senegal in west Africa to the Red Sea.
At risk for the US is not only keeping ISIS, Boko Haram and other insurgent groups in check, but also the growing influence of Russia, Iran and China, all of whom are vying for power in Africa alongside the West.
But Western powers such as the US and the European Union seem to be losing the battle in the Sahel.
“There’s been this void in all international security cooperation,” said Joseph Siegle, research director of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the Pentagon-funded National Defense University. “They were all part of a larger regional effort to try to support these countries.”
Siegle attributes the shift to a series of governments overthrown by military juntas and an anti-Western disinformation campaign supported by nefarious actors in Russia or other hostile nations. But he said closer ties with Russia would hurt those countries in the future because Moscow does not invest financially in those countries.
“These countries will feel enormous pressure and will continue to try to put on a good face [show] that works, but it’s not something they’re going to be able to support,” he added. “Something’s gotta give here.”
The immediate risk of Niger’s withdrawal is that the Sahel could erupt into more violence as the US and France, along with other Western powers, face corrosive influence with military juntas that have close ties to Russia and other rival powers.
Threats from rebel groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS have already escalated in other countries run by military governments, including Mali, which kicked out French forces in 2022 but has since seen terror groups double their territory control.
Jacques Du Preez, an analyst at the South African research and intelligence firm In on Africa, warned that a more hollow US presence in the Sahel could create the conditions for a resurgence of Islamic extremism like the rise of ISIS in 2014.
“It is the most active frontier in the global conflict against terrorism outside the Middle East,” he said of the Sahel. “The place that Al Qaeda and ISIS focused on was the Sahel.”
“They understand that this is a very vital area [and] very strategic area that if they could get a foothold,” he explained, “could allow them to have a very big impact, not only in Africa, but also in surrounding areas like Europe.”
Du Preez also stressed that other nations in the Sahel region are at risk if instability increases, including Nigeria.
A near-term risk is Chad, where the US is redeploying some troops after a military coup about three years ago. However, talks are ongoing and are expected to continue after the elections starting on May 6.
Chad’s leader, Mahamat Idriss Deby, has closer ties to the US than to Russia.
Deby will likely prevail in a sham election and have no reason to push the US out of the country, experts say. However, Chad faces other political factions within the country that are closer to Russia, posing a potential long-term threat.
“The Russians have dropped a lot with a lot of them [Déby’s] potential challengers,” Du Preez said. “There is a clear move to isolate Chad and try to install their own regime.”
While experts see the rise of juntas — and the ousting of Western powers — as creating instability that could empower terrorist groups, these same military leaders have cited governments’ inability to suppress extremist threats as justification for their takeovers.
Niger’s government fell in a July military coup that paved the way for General Abdourahamane Tchiani to seize power, promising to deal more effectively with terrorist threats.
Instead of turning to the West, Tchiani fostered relations with the Russian private military company Wagner Group, which has ties to Moscow and has long exploited the resources of African nations.
The Wagner group was previously headed by founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, who staged a short-lived rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin and was killed in a plane crash last August.
Since then, Putin has moved to exert more influence over the mercenary group, which gives Moscow a low-profile foothold in Africa. The Wagner Group appears to have named itself a successor to the newly formed African Corps, which sent military trainers to Niger in April.
Russia also has close relations and security agreements with Mali and Burkina Faso, both controlled by military juntas, and Libya, a country torn between two major rival factions. The Central African Republic is also close to Russia and is reportedly discussing a deal to host a Russian military base.
A reduced US presence in the Sahel is likely to encourage more Russian influence in the region, particularly if terrorist threats increase.
Siegle, of the National Defense University, said “the main way Russia has gained influence is at the expense of the West.”
“A lot of it is an information war going on,” he said. “But its entry point is these military leaders who are autocrats who see Russia as their strongest international protector to maintain their power.”
It’s not just Russia: China also has its hands in Africa.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a large-scale investment project mainly for infrastructure in Asia and Africa, has financed loans to African nations that the West has accused of being predatory to give Beijing military, economic and political influence. China, however, has only one base in Africa, in Djibouti.
Iran is also another regional player, supporting a proxy group called the Islamic Movement of Nigeria and the government in Sudan, which is waging a devastating civil war against a rebel group.
Last year, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi traveled to Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe to strengthen ties with all three nations.
Some experts see a populist, anti-Western movement organic in nature—even if fueled in part by China and Russia and exploited by military juntas—and centered on long-standing grievances with former Western colonial powers, but also disenfranchisement from the current state of affairs. .
Abigail Kabandula, director of the Africa Center at the University of Denver, said the US is losing influence in Africa in part because Washington has failed to tackle terrorism, a threat she added has “burgeoned” in the past decade.
“The question that many of [people] suggest why the West or the French are in the region if we still have the same problems and the problems have really grown?” he said. “It’s a matter of rethinking the overall counter-terrorism approach in the region. Whether we have the US or not, the issue is how counter-terrorism is dealt with.”
Kabandula also said the US has relied heavily on security arrangements with African nations in the Sahel and failed to focus more cooperation on economic or other needs, creating a “continent-wide power vacuum”.
“The US has not supported some countries in the things they wanted to pursue,” he said. “Many African countries have actually asked for other things like development, development projects, development aid or infrastructure development. These did not emerge from the US and African countries [look] to China for help.”
Will Waldorf, a professor who studies politics and international affairs at Wake Forest University, said he supports a US withdrawal from Niger because it might allow Washington to recalibrate its approach to Africa and counter-terrorism.
Waldorf said the US focus on counter-terrorism “misses the heart of the problem” and that it is “amazing” how terrorism has grown under US watch.
“The lack of good governance, the lack of meeting the daily needs of citizens in West Africa, where we know that food insecurity is extreme, has really been the main driver of terrorist recruitment in the region,” he said.
“If you can get to those core issues,” he added, that would be “on a different playing field then what we’re offering now in terms of approaching power.”
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