Alex Keble explains Mohamed Salah’s recent struggles for Liverpool and why he will return to form soon enough.
A disappointing 2024
Salah stopped scoring and Liverpool’s Premier League, FA Cup and UEFA Europa League campaigns collapsed.
It’s a simple correlation, and there are other reasons for the collapse of Jurgen Klopp’s last season, but Salah’s decline is clearly a major factor.
He’s not used to it. Salah has been one of the most consistent goalscorers in Premier League history – scoring between 19 and 32 league goals in six successive seasons – and one of its most relentless players, too.
In his six seasons at Liverpool before this one, he featured in 218 of the club’s 228 Premier League games.
No wonder he looks a little tired. It’s no wonder he’s struggling to end this dry spell, having never had to recover from an injury like this before.
And when you consider the bad luck he’s had in 2024, it’s no wonder he’s a little tiresome.
After six brilliant seasons and three months of disappointments for team and country, he has earned the right to be disappointed.
Salah missed most of Egypt’s Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) with a hamstring injury, a bitter blow for him personally.
Out for a month, he returned for a trip to Brentford but then broke down again, missing a three-week spell that included the EFL Cup final, the highlight of the season for Liverpool.
He hasn’t been the same since.
Here’s a look at what went wrong for Salah – and why he’ll be back soon enough.
Salah’s slump is limited to just the last six PL games
It is important not to overstate the problem. Salah has scored 24 goals in all competitions this season, six more than Liverpool’s next best player, Darwin Nunez (18).
He also has 12 assists, taking Salah to 36 goal contributions in 41 games, an impressive return for any striker in the world and in line with historic performances.
Salah goal/assist record in all competitions since 2017/18
Time | Races | Goals | assist | G/A per match |
---|---|---|---|---|
2017/18 | 52 | 44 | 14 | 1.1 |
2018/19 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 0.7 |
2019/20 | 48 | 23 | 13 | 0.75 |
2020/21 | 51 | 31 | 6 | 0.7 |
2021/22 | 51 | 31 | 15 | 0.9 |
2022/23 | 51 | 30 | 16 | 0.9 |
2023/24* | 41 | 24 | 12 | 0.9 |
*Three PL matches left
His underlying Premier League numbers suggest the same thing – or at least they do up until his last six games.
Salah scored just one goal, a penalty, in those six and failed to register a single assist as Liverpool dropped 10 points, ending their title challenge.
So it’s fair to say that Salah’s problems are new. When we ask what went wrong, we only talk about six Premier League games.
Salah goals without penalties/expected assists in last three seasons
The table below shows that Salah’s Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA) were consistent with past years, as were his goal and assist numbers, until this barren six-game spell began.
Time | Goal without penalty / 90 | No penalty xG / 90 | Assist / 90 | xA / 90 |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021/22 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.42 | 0.33 |
2022/23 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 0.21 |
2023/24 (except last six) | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
2023/24 (last six only) | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Since then, Salah has scored a penalty-free xG of 1.6 from 17 shots, but has failed to score a penalty-free goal, as the chart below shows.
Interestingly, he’s also racked up 1.5 xA, only his teammates are just as wasteful. As you might expect, Salah’s form is partly symptomatic of Liverpool’s overall decline in performance.
However, anyone watching Liverpool’s recent games can see that Salah is not himself: his touch, his shooting and his movement are not everything. Because this?
Injury, fatigue or tactical problem?
The simplest explanation is that Salah is exhausted (after consistently playing 50-60 games per season) and lacks match sharpness after returning from injury.
So rarely on the treatment table, Salah may struggle with the novelty of having to find his feet again, especially alongside teammates who aren’t firing on all cylinders.
However, there may also be a tactical explanation.
The graphics below, comparing Salah’s last six games to his first 23 Premier League games this season, illustrate the slight change in his position on the pitch.
Salah’s last six games in PL 23/24
![Mohamed Salah Twenty3_2](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/05/01/8d19cd87-a059-42d2-9529-d3c81834013e/player_season-performance-2-vis-16x9-4-.png?width=1400&height=800)
![Mohamed Salah Twenty3_2](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/05/01/8d19cd87-a059-42d2-9529-d3c81834013e/player_season-performance-2-vis-16x9-4-.png?width=1400&height=800)
Salah’s first 23 games in PL 23/24
![Salah-twenty3](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/05/01/7b7296f4-014b-430b-a034-7e70772962ee/player_season-performance-2-vis-16x9-5-.png?width=1400&height=800)
![Salah-twenty3](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/05/01/7b7296f4-014b-430b-a034-7e70772962ee/player_season-performance-2-vis-16x9-5-.png?width=1400&height=800)
Salah doesn’t get as deep into the penalty area, reflecting his difficulties working with Trent Alexander-Arnold, Conor Bradley and Nunez during that run.
Too often he is forced to hug the touchline (in a non-dangerous position) as the full-back covers, while Nunez’s tendency to drift left – as the chart below shows – has disconnected Salah from the other forwards.
Nunez’s last six games in PL 23/24
![Darwin Nunez, Liverpool Twenty3](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/05/01/303640d9-2763-4684-953c-fdd598532ab8/player_season-performance-2-vis-16x9-1-.png?width=1400&height=800)
![Darwin Nunez, Liverpool Twenty3](https://resources.premierleague.com/photos/2024/05/01/303640d9-2763-4684-953c-fdd598532ab8/player_season-performance-2-vis-16x9-1-.png?width=1400&height=800)
Going further back, Salah seems to have lost out somewhat from Alexander-Arnold’s repositioning as an inverted full-back. Without the latter’s threat from that side, it’s easier for opponents to mark Salah out of play.
Salah may benefit from more scrutiny under the slot
Liverpool’s collapsing form in 2024 relates to the ferocity of Klopp’s latest regime and Salah was one of its victims.
They have taken 28 points from defeat this season and throughout 2023/24 their games have been very chaotic, lacking the composure – and the anchor – that was there when Fabinho was in the middle and Roberto Firmino anchored the front line .
These days there is no compensation for Salah, a mad talent to say the least, and the cumulative effect was to untie the Egyptian.
The appointment of Arne Slot may just change that, if reports of the Dutchman succeeding Klopp are true.
He’s closer to Pep Guardiola in style than Klopp, which means a bit more order – a bit less chaos – in how attacks are constructed. This may help free up Salah, who works best as the unpredictable striker who bounces off reliable teammates.
Furthermore, in Slot’s 4-2-3-1 formation, the right-winger is expected to drift far up the pitch, which will not only bring Salah closer to goal but open up space for Alexander-Arnold to drop back down the right his position.
Then there is the potential for Cody Gakpo to become the measured false nine that suits Salah better than the ferocious Nunez, who is perhaps too similar to Salah to build a long-term partnership.
Gakpo scored nine goals and provided 12 assists in just 14 league games for PSV Eindhoven in the first half of last season before being snapped up by Liverpool in January.
Slott was manager of Feyenoord at the time. It is possible that he is a big fan of his countryman.
But whoever picks the slot to partner Salah up front next season, there’s a good chance a new (and calmer) tactical approach – coupled with a much-delayed rest this summer – will see Salah fired again.
There is definitely no need to panic. Salah, a Liverpool legend with 210 goals in 346 appearances in all competitions, has been sidelined for arguably just six Premier League games and at most a few months of 2024.
He will turn back.