The resumption of a full-scale cold war between a coalition of Western countries and Russia over the latter’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has inspired great power competition on the African continent with a strong political component. The race to secure the natural resources needed to produce lithium-ion batteries has drawn the US, China, India and European countries to African capitals for years. Indeed, Russia has also sought deals in Africa’s mining industries, but mainly for uranium, gold and diamonds. However, with Russia’s relative isolation in the Western system of international relations, African countries have also become important in Moscow’s countermeasures efforts, aiming to demonstrate its ability to successfully bypass Western efforts with the help of its developing relations in all over Africa.
As recent Gallup polls show, Russia is recovering from a drop in its reputation in Africa—and indeed the world—after its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has already regained some of its public appeal, although its overall popularity still lags behind that of China, the US and even some European nations such as Germany. 58%, 56% and 54% of respondents to the Gallup poll viewed China, the US and Germany’s position in Africa favorably, while only 42% felt the same way about Russia. This is a number, however, that should concern Western countries for the foreseeable future.
In recent years, Russia has signed nearly 20 military cooperation agreements with various African countries, including Nigeria, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and the Central African Republic. This goes hand in hand with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s increasingly frequent visits to African capitals, winning the favor of leaders for Moscow’s support of international organizations, most notably the UN. The arms trade remains one of the strongest components of Russia’s relations with many African countries, which continue to be strengthened by the presence of its mercenary groups, notably the Wagner group. Wagner’s presence in Chad, Burkina Faso and Mali correspond with the highest approval ratings of the Russian leadership (76%, 81% and 89% respectively — truly alarming figures for Western decision-makers).
Russia has a strong base in South Africa, with which it has not only cultivated a historic relationship through the country’s ruling African National Congress (ANC), but also has myriad ties within the BRICS grouping. In this regard, Dr Henri Count Evans, lecturer in journalism and mass communication said: “Russia enjoys a considerable degree of good reputation due to many factors. First, Russia’s alliances with liberation movements during the anti-colonial wars, especially in South Africa, make it easy for many to see it as a friend. However, over the past three years, and most notably with the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has managed to manage its reputation by combining its historical ‘ally’ advantage with a plethora of propaganda devices and outright lies.”
Reflecting on Russian disinformation efforts, he continued: “Russia has unleashed social media bots to echo and flood African conversations about the war. X, TikTok and Facebook influencers with strong ties to the ruling elites have also been used to echo Kremlin propaganda. We see these in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia. Moreover, political elites in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) openly supported Russia’s war efforts as a struggle against American and loosely Western aggression, neo-imperialism and neo-colonialism.’
Kenya, on the other hand, exemplifies the preference of some African countries for strategic neutrality, hoping to reap the economic benefits of promoting friendly relations with both Russia and the West. “Russia, however, is exploiting post-colonial bitterness to become an ally of ‘pan-Africanism’ by providing military support to African regimes that wish to sever ties with former colonial powers,” according to Mihr Thakar, geopolitical analyst and CEO. of Mihr Marketing Ltd., a marketing company based in Mombasa, Kenya.
He continued, “Apart from debt cancellations, education opportunities and grain deals, its bilateral cooperation does not have the same impact as multilateral institutions, due to limited disbursements towards the SDGs.”
Looking at the continent more broadly, even if other countries do not welcome Russian officials with the openness and public fanfare that Kenya has, other African capitals are keen to avoid being dragged into Russia-West hostility if possible, opening further doors to Moscow. at least deal with reputation management. One reason for this is the aforementioned pragmatic economic approach.
On the economic front, Russian involvement on the continent is minimal compared to the figures for Chinese and US trade and investment, which gives Western countries an opportunity to counter the Russian appeal. African nations continue to seek ever more ambitious programs of economic cooperation and development, giving the West a strategic advantage to exploit.
Russia’s preferred methods of disinformation and military involvement through its mercenary groups make it a suspicious partner for many in Africa, providing another avenue for the West to counterbalance Russian influence. With a series of historical tensions due to differences between ethnic associations and state borders drawn by European colonial powers, the revisionist stance followed by Russia in Ukraine and also supported through its proxy groups poses great risks to the stability of some nations in Africa, if and as the Gallup survey mentioned earlier shows, the negative impact of this on public opinion has yet to be felt. However, as long as Russia sees economic and financial engagement as secondary—which remains unlikely to change while the war in Ukraine drains its resources—African public opinion may continue to gravitate toward the West and China.
The effectiveness of Russian disinformation, however, should not be underestimated. Dismus Mokwa, a strategic communications expert from Nairobi, said: “The Russian Embassy in Kenya is proactively using the infrastructure of public diplomacy to inform and influence public opinion and debates around the conflict in Ukraine. The Nairobi mission uses social media as a special purpose vehicle to spread pro-Kremlin messages and discredit content aligned with Ukrainian interests. The mission was in fifth gear to promote Russian language and culture programs in Kenya after the invasion of Ukraine.”
Opinion polls from Chad, Burkina Faso and Mali already show an impact, despite the fact that one would think the presence of mercenary groups in these countries would prompt arguments that Russia would react negatively. Russia’s active disinformation efforts are a huge challenge for the West, which must be addressed through active means, not just the indirect appeal of Western development programs.
While China and the US continue to lead economic change in Africa among the great powers, competing with their preferential trade agreements and foreign direct investment and giving African leaders the opportunity to exercise increasing levels of agency, Russia appears to be making a comeback. especially in public. Strategic calculations in the West should consider this trend very carefully.