The climate disaster that hit southern Brazil, killing more than a hundred people and displacing nearly two million, has also sparked a wave of outlandish conspiracy theories, some of which involved vapor trails and weather antennas in faraway Alaska.
As is often the case in times of disaster and great uncertainty, several of these theories have gone viral on social media.
“What’s happening in Rio Grande do Sul is definitely not natural,” said a woman on the platform known as X. “Let’s open our eyes!”
He blamed something called HAARP — the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program — a US project that studies the ionosphere using huge antennas in Alaska.
Other people have posted images of planes criss-crossing the skies over the hard-hit Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, saying the contrails left by the jets contain toxic chemicals as part of a secret and nefarious government program.
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Overall, the theories paint an ominous picture that somehow denies climate change while blaming governments and scientific institutions that supposedly orchestrate “planned tragedies” for murky motives.
These theories ignore the overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is almost certainly behind a global increase in extreme weather events.
What do the scientists say?
Carlos Nobre, who heads Brazil’s National Institute of Science and Technology on Climate Change (INCT), listed what scientists believe is behind the devastating rainfall of late: a low-pressure system has been blocked by a high-pressure system in center-west and southeast of the country, causing cold fronts to remain in the region even as water vapor entering from the Amazon contributed to historic levels of rainfall.
Global warming has exacerbated that situation, Nobre said, adding, “A warmer atmosphere can store much more water vapor, fueling more frequent and intense rainfall events that lead to disasters like this.”
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Brazil’s government agrees: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has declared the tragedy a “warning” for the planet.
By contrast, his predecessor — far-right President Jair Bolsonaro — weakened environmental enforcement and downplayed the impact of climate change.
A recent survey by the polling institute Quaest, however, found that almost all Brazilians believe that climate change is at least partly responsible for the disaster in Rio Grande do Sul.
“No natural feeling”
However, conspiracy theories that might once have been brushed aside have taken on new life amid the massive environmental disaster that has befallen the region.
Social media users are sharing theories that were discredited years ago in the United States, linking extreme weather to “chemtrails” from jets and an alleged secret program at the HAARP project.
One claim is that the government uses jets to spread toxic chemicals that are then activated by powerful antennas in Alaska, changing the climate and causing catastrophic weather.
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However, the process behind jet “chemtrails” has long been understood: jet engines leave visible trails of condensed water vapor — plus small amounts of soot and pollutants.
And the HAARP project, originally funded in part by the US military, is now operated by the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, where scientists use antennas for high-power radio transmissions to study the ionosphere, without the ability to manipulate the weather.
Nobre, like many other scientists, says the HAARP theories “make absolutely no physical sense.”
“There is no way that an instrument in the ionosphere is going to make the weather more extreme,” he said.
‘what is true’
Raquel Recuero, who specializes in social communications at the Federal University of Pelotas in Rio Grande do Sul, said conspiracy theories are likely spread by organized groups “in search of an audience, revenue generation and influence.”
Such theories find fertile ground when people are desperately searching for explanations – no matter how improbable – for some deeply disturbing phenomenon.
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Ideas take root, he added, when they merge with issues that matter to people, such as “political and religious discourse.”
But he said that while they tend to reinforce conservative and extremist beliefs, they cannot be tied to a single political movement.
Requero said people’s trust in the fundamental pillars of democracy is being undermined by these attacks on government authorities, scientists and the press, all of whom are accused of manipulating the truth.
The challenge, he said, is to raise public awareness of what’s going on and help people understand “what’s true and what’s false.”
Source: AFP