Recently References claimed that Ukrainian special services were “likely” behind strikes on Russian-backed forces in Sudan. Although still unconfirmed, this is not the first time Ukraine has considered flexing its muscles beyond Europe to target Russia.
of Ukraine military intelligence agency previously hatched plans to attack Russian forces in Syria with clandestine Kurdish help, according to a leaked top-secret US intelligence document. The goal behind the targeting of Russian units in Syria was to force Russia to redirect its military through Ukraine to bolster its defenses in Syria.
The Wagner Group, the same Russian mercenary organization involved in atrocities in Ukraine and across Africa, has played a key role in expanding Moscow’s reach in Africa. Helped Moscow plunder Africa’s resources while aid “Propping up some very unpleasant regimes in exchange for looting the precious resources of mineral-rich countries like Mali, Sudan and Libya.”
According to New York Times“Wagner mercenaries and Malian soldiers have been accused of a massacre in the village of Moura, killing hundreds of people – including many unarmed prisoners and people with no apparent links to the insurgency – during a five-day siege last March.”
If Ukraine has the resources and capability to strike Russia in Africa, it could help Ukraine achieve three strategic goals.
First, as with plans in Syria, if Ukraine is actively able to strike Russian troops and bases in Africa, then Russia will likely be forced to focus more resources on Africa and less on Ukraine. It could also affect Russia’s financial resources, as Russia plunders African gold to bolster the war effort in Ukraine.
Russia worked with Sudan’s military leadership to divert billions in gold, depriving Sudan of significant government revenue. He supported the 2021 military coup that overthrew the transitional civilian government, undermining the pro-democracy movement that had previously ousted President Omar al-Bashir. Former US official declare yourself that Russia has exploited Sudan’s resources and supported the coup to maintain access.
Second, if Ukraine succeeds in defeating Wagner-backed forces in Africa, it could help Ukraine and the West keep pro-Western governments and democracies in power. One of Wagner’s goals in Africa was to assist in coups and protect dictators. This is important because Ukraine has had a hard time trying to lure African countries away from neutrality or even from taking Russia’s side in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba promised to “free Africa from Russia’s grip,” but so far the response to Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts has been tepid. In March 2022, the United Nations voted a analysis denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Of the 54 African nations represented at the UN, 28, or just over 51 percent, supported the resolution. This is in stark contrast to the overwhelming 81 percent approval from non-African countries. And in April 2022, the UN moved to suspend Russia’s participation in the UN Human Rights Council. Of the 54 African nations, only 10 approved this suspension, nine opposed, while 35 either abstained or were not present at the vote.
Third, if Ukraine targets and destroys Russian combat capabilities in Africa, it will erode Russia’s international prestige and influence. Targeting Russia in Africa – where they believe they can operate with impunity – shows that Russia is not the superpower it thinks it is.
During a coup in Niger In July 2023, many of the coup supporters openly expressed their distaste for France, Niger’s former colonial ruler. Thousands demonstrated in Niger’s capital, where they expressed their hatred of France, and many of those demonstrators waved Russian flags, indicating Russia’s emerging influence in the region. The New York Times mentionted that in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, where there have been recent military coups, the Russian flag “has emerged as a fashionable accessory, like an illustration of Che Guevara a generation ago in the West.”
Russia is strategically expanding its influence in Africa as a counter to Western powers, while Ukraine has actively sought meaningful diplomatic relations with African countries. For over a decade, Moscow has positioned itself as Africa’s main arms supplier, accounting for nearly half of the continent’s military imports.
By blocking Ukrainian ports from a full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia is restricting Ukrainian grain from world markets, with Moscow seeking to capitalize on increased grain prices, profits from Ukrainian grain seized in occupied territories and to weaken the economic economy of Ukraine. This disruption to grain exports from the blockade of Ukrainian and Russian ports has exacerbated supply shortages, resulting in the food prices in Africa.
However, Ukraine has not had much success in countering Russian disinformation in Africa or in persuading African states to stand up to Russia. The problem is compounded as Wagner continues to help install pro-Russian regimes. Five former French colonies in Africa had their own governments overturned from 2021.
The new leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso are “too pro-Russian” and in Mali and the Central African Republic, mercenaries Wagner have taken the place of the French troops.
If Western countries can provide the financial support, it may be time for Ukraine to go on the offensive against Russia in Africa. Ukraine could offer its drone expertise and help coordinate drone strikes against Russian forces, as they appear to have already done in Sudan. It could also deploy special forces to conduct strategic strikes against Russian forces.
Ukraine’s ability to target and neutralize Wagner forces outside its borders could boost morale inside the country and potentially reduce Russia’s operational power in Ukraine.
Ukrainian special forces and information services they have the expertise to run advanced operations in areas beyond their home country. Successfully undertaking such missions requires an integrated network, strong infrastructure and local support. With proper support from the West, Ukraine can have a devastating impact on Russian forces in Africa.
The struggle against Russian imperialism goes beyond Europe. Ukraine has the potential to make a significant contribution to Russia’s defeat in Africa.
David KearyChenko is a freelance journalist and research associate at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
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