- By Sarah Rainsford
- Correspondent for Eastern Europe, Warsaw
From the beginning of the full invasion of Russia, Warsaw was a staunch supporter of Kiev.
He often took the lead in sending military aid and equipment and passionately argued that such support was necessary to protect Poland itself from Russian aggression.
The Polish government’s change of tone on Ukraine is surprising.
Now suddenly it feels like the political knives have been drawn for Kiev.
But there was no mistaking the words of the Polish President. Andrzej Duda compared Ukraine to a drowning man who risks dragging his rescuers down with him.
Moscow welcomed this comment.
The sharp downturn in relations between the neighboring countries began with a dispute over grain imports that remains unresolved.
Ukraine needs to export its crops and land routes are now critical because Russia is deliberately attacking ports on both the Black Sea and the Danube River. But in an effort to protect its own farmers, Poland will not allow cheaper Ukrainian grain to enter its domestic market, only to pass through the rest of the European Union in transit.
For Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, or PiS, the equation is simple – farmers here don’t want competition from Ukrainian grain, and PiS wants those farmers’ votes in next month’s election.
Kiev is outraged, but Poland’s airwaves – and social media platforms – are currently abuzz with election talk, and the tone is sometimes almost shockingly vicious.
PiS is leading in the polls, but the margins are narrow and most commentators believe it is too close to call.
In the battle for votes, PiS has positioned itself as the strongest defender of Polish interests. So redefining how he helps Ukraine is just one of the cards he’s playing alongside other populist causes like immigration.
Piotr Lukasiewicz, from the Polityka Insight analysis group, explains: “It’s not about grain, it’s not about guns. It’s about the sentiment of the conservative electorate, which is the big issue for PiS, and they have to ride on that sentiment .
“It is built around the idea that Ukraine is not grateful enough [for Polish support] and that Ukrainians here get too much in terms of social services and finances,” he says.
PiS is trying to win over voters of the far-right Konfederacja party, which is currently polling at almost 10% support.
This week, members of Konfederacja picketed the Ukrainian embassy in Warsaw and held a mock invoice in support of Poland. Konfederacja announced that the total cost of the aid to Kiev was more than 100 billion zlotys (£18.79 billion, $23.1 billion) and wrote: “Payment: zero. Gratitude: none.”
Opposition politicians have criticized the government’s behavior as dangerous nationalism.
But Poland’s shift in tone isn’t happening in isolation.
The shadow of “Ukraine fatigue” hangs over election campaigns from Slovakia to the United States, a serious concern for Kiev which needs constant and steady support from the West as it battles Russian forces.
The Polish government stresses that international aid will continue to flow to Ukraine’s front lines through Rzeszow in the east, a critical hub for everything from tanks to bullets. Meanwhile, talks between Ukraine and Poland over the grain dispute continue.
“Words matter”
It appears that efforts are being made on both sides to prevent the war of words from escalating into a full-blown crisis.
And while PiS seeks the rural, conservative vote, support for Ukraine here in Warsaw remains strong.
“It’s definitely not good that we’re cutting aid. What Russia is doing is unacceptable. We have to defend ourselves and help Ukraine defend its freedom,” Victoria told me, in a city that still has many Ukrainian flags. dressed outside the apartment. solidarity windows – and many Ukrainian refugees.
“I think this is a tool the government is using to win the elections. They are playing with all the emotions and this is dirty talk before the elections,” Rafa suggested.
“I hope we are just talking. It depends on who wins the election. In a month, that will be clear.”
But some believe the damage to Poland is already done.
“Words matter,” argues analyst Piotr Lukasiewicz, “I think it will have consequences and it will be bad for Poland.”