Source: AFP
Xi Jinping heads to Europe on Sunday to defend China’s “borderless” alliance with Russia, first with Ukraine-backing France and then with Serbia and Hungary, which have close ties to the Kremlin.
The world’s second-largest economy is seeking to deepen political and economic ties in Europe to offset rocky relations with rival Washington.
But analysts say that if France and Ukraine’s other allies in Europe believe that Xi can be persuaded to abandon his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, they will be disappointed.
Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s red carpet welcome for Xi upon his arrival on Sunday, their talks will be far from straightforward.
In Paris on Monday, Xi and Macron will hold talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has urged Beijing to play a bigger role in ending the war in Ukraine.
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“If the European side expects China to impose sanctions on Russia or join the United States and Europe in imposing economic sanctions on Russia, I think it is clearly unlikely to happen,” said Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Shanghai. Fudan University.
Xi is seeking to push back on recent European Union investigations into Chinese industry, but France has made it clear that “first and foremost” on the agenda will be Russia’s war in Ukraine.
China claims to be a neutral party in Ukraine but has never condemned the Russian invasion, while the United States has said Moscow would struggle to sustain its war without Beijing’s support.
Beijing is “the international player with the most power to change Moscow’s mind,” a French diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“Paris will put China’s support for Russia at the heart of the debate,” said Abigael Vasselier, at the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies.
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“This certainly won’t be conducive to a good time, despite the visuals.”
How far will Xi go?
Source: AFP
Xi’s visit to Europe will be the first since the end of China’s Covid isolation.
It also comes a year after Macron paid a state visit to China in April 2023, during which he said he was counting on Xi to “bring Russia to its senses” over Ukraine.
At the time, Macron angered European allies by saying the bloc should not be drawn into a conflict between China and its main rival, the United States, over Taiwan — while winning praise in Beijing for the comments.
In February this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited France and told Macron that Beijing appreciates his “independent foreign policy”.
“We will see how far Xi Jinping will go to please Emmanuel Macron,” said Valerie Niquet, of the Foundation for Strategic Studies.
After his European trip ends, Xi will return to China, with Putin expected later in May.
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“China will not back down in Ukraine,” Niquet said.
“Price to Pay”
While Macron and von der Leyen will seek to focus on Ukraine, Xi will want to fight a series of investigations launched by the bloc into alleged unfair trade practices by China.
The investigations cover China’s industrial production, from solar panels and electric vehicle subsidies to procurement of its medical device sector.
Beijing has criticized the moves as “protectionism”.
“The Chinese side is very willing to bring it to the table, but France is behind the European Commission’s plans,” Philippe Le Corre, of the Asia Policy Institute’s China Analysis Center, told AFP.
“It is time for European leaders to explain to China that the price it will pay for its growing support for Russia’s war effort will increase,” said Vasselier of the Mercator Institute.
“Eastern opening”
Source: AFP
From France, Xi will head to Serbia and then Hungary on May 8-10.
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The visit to the Serbian capital Belgrade will coincide with the anniversary of the US bombing of the Chinese embassy there in 1999 — allowing Xi to send a strongly anti-Western message.
China has invested heavily to expand its economic footprint in Central and Eastern Europe, including massive battery and electric vehicle (EV) factories in Hungary and copper and gold operations in Serbia.
“The plan to commemorate … NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy … also paves the way for Putin’s visit to China: NATO is a threat to international security,” said Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for the Study European Union at Renmin University of China.
In Budapest, he will meet Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an avowed nationalist who opposes the EU’s official position on Russia.
Orban has championed an “opening up the East” foreign policy since returning to power in 2010, seeking closer economic ties with China, Russia and other Asian countries.
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Despite its small size, the Central European country of 9.6 million people has attracted a flood of major Chinese projects in recent years.
Orbán spoke last month about his vision of a “sovereign world”, where “the global economy is non-ideologically organized along lines of mutual benefit”.
Source: AFP