NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The impact of the destructive rains that hit East Africa from March to May was intensified by a mix of climate change and rapid urban growth, an international team of climate scientists said in a study published Friday.
The findings come from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists that analyzes whether and to what extent human-induced climate change has altered the likelihood and magnitude of extreme weather events.
The rains caused floods that killed hundreds of people, displaced thousands more, killed thousands of livestock and destroyed thousands of acres of crops.
To assess how human-induced climate may have affected the floods, the researchers analyzed weather data and climate model simulations to compare how these types of events have changed between today’s climate and the cooler pre-industrial climate. They focused on areas where the impact was most severe, including southern Kenya, most of Tanzania and part of Burundi.
It found that climate change had made catastrophic rainfall twice as likely and 5% more intense. The study also found that with further warming, the frequency and intensity of rainfall will continue to increase.
“It is likely that we will see this type of heavy rainfall occurring this season in the future,” said Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London and lead author of the study.
The study also found that the rapid urbanization of East African cities increases the risk of flooding.
Especially densely populated urban areas high density informal settlements, were significantly affected by the downpours. Torrential rain flooded homes and streets, in some places exposing weaknesses in urban planning to meet the demands of rapidly growing populations.
March to May is the season of the “long rains” in East Africa. It is when most of the region’s average annual rainfall occurs and is usually characterized by torrential rains.
East Africa also suffered floods during the “little rains” from October to December 2023 and before, endure three-year drought. WWA scientists found that both events were exacerbated by climate change.
Philip Omondi, a climate change expert at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center in Nairobi who was not involved in the study, said anthropogenic impacts lead to intense and high-frequency extreme floods and droughts.
Shaun Ferris, senior technical adviser for agriculture and climate change at Catholic Relief Services in Nairobi, said the more intense weather is putting a new level of pressure on old and unplanned buildings and basic infrastructure, and there is a need to create infrastructure that is more capable to deal with climate change.
“There is enormous pressure on basic services,” he said, giving the example of Nairobi, whose population has doubled in the past 20 years.
Ferris said the global community needs to start using the loss and damage fund for climate disasters so they can repair and upgrade their basic infrastructure.
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