The creation of a Sahel confederation on Saturday plunged West Africa into an unprecedented crisis that could threaten the free movement of people and goods in the region.
Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali joined to form the “Confederation of Sahelian States” (AES) which will include about 72 million people.
The three countries said in January they were cutting ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) — an organization they accused of being manipulated by France, their former colonial ruler.
On the eve of ECOWAS’ 50th anniversary, the bloc appears powerless to bring the Sahel countries back into its fold.
The first tensions arose in 2020 and 2021 after the coups that brought Colonel Assimi Goita to power in Mali.
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At the time, ECOWAS imposed heavy trade and economic sanctions on Bamako and suspended Mali from membership.
The lifting of those sanctions in 2022 has not been enough to warm relations, especially as Bamako found an ally in neighboring Burkina Faso, where two coups took place in 2022, and Niger, where a military leader took over last July.
For ECOWAS, the Niger coup was one coup too many.
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Not only did he impose sanctions against Niamey, but he also threatened military intervention for several weeks to restore ousted president Mohamed Bazoum.
This was enough to set the military governments of the Sahel in good stead, as they have made sovereignty a key point of their governance and accused ECOWAS of being subservient to France, which they have all turned their backs on.
In January, all three announced they were leaving the West African body and on Saturday formalized their divorce by joining forces, despite the lifting of sanctions against Niamey in February.
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On Sunday, ECOWAS warned of the “diplomatic and political isolation” of AES countries and the loss of millions of euros in investment.
Another concern is worsening insecurity in the region, which has been plagued by recurring jihadist violence.
AES countries have long criticized ECOWAS for not helping them enough in the face of this scourge, and in March created their own joint force.
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But the most concrete consequence could be the free movement of goods and people within the region.
On Sunday, the head of the ECOWAS Commission, Omar Alieu Touray, warned that nationals of AES countries could in future have to apply for visas to travel to the rest of the region and face obstacles to free business establishment.
For Nigerian lawyer and political analyst Mahaman Bachar, this threat will not be enough to curb AES’ “desire to distance itself from ECOWAS” and “reciprocity” could be enforced by the Sahel countries.
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“This would be the beginning of the disintegration of the West African sub-regional institution and would be contrary to the ideals of the African Union,” said Nigerian economic expert Boubacar Kando.
On Saturday, Niger general Abdourahamane Tiani was quite clear on the matter.
“Our peoples have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” he said.
The three AES countries — although landlocked — believe they can be self-sufficient within their confederation, pooling their resources in most key areas of the economy.
As far as ECOWAS is concerned, there is no question of resignation.
Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye visited Burkina Faso and Mali in May and was appointed on Sunday as mediator with the AES countries.
“We cannot stand idly by. Our responsibility is to work to bring the positions closer together, to reconcile them, to ensure that there can be a forum for dialogue,” he said on Sunday.
Faye called for “everything possible to be done to prevent the withdrawal of the three sister countries”.
Ivorian political analyst Arthur Banga said Faye “has the freshness of a newly elected politician and some connections (with AES countries) in terms of revolution and change. She still has a small chance, but the trend is towards a break”.
Nigerian lawyer and political analyst Bachar said the negotiations will no longer be about returning to ECOWAS “but rather about how to save the furniture, how to establish mutually respectful relations between ECOWAS and AES, which is now an entity of on her own”.
At its summit on Sunday, the West African organization acknowledged the danger of its “disintegration”.
Burkina, Niger and Mali represent a market of 72 million people, almost a fifth of the regional bloc’s population.
“ECOWAS has seen members leave in the past, such as Mauritania (in 2000). Even with 12 countries, it remains strong, notably with Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, and Ivory Coast and Senegal,” big economies in the region, Banga said.